The U.S. economy is showing mixed signals as job growth far surpassed expectations in December, yet more companies look ready to scale back amidst weak demand. In December, non-farm payrolls rose 292,000, versus expectations of an increase by 200,000, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That sharp increase in jobs left the unemployment rate unchanged at 5 percent.
Developments in China seemed to overshadow other considerations as investors returned from the New Year. The offices were open and desks manned, yet many did not appear to be prepared to re-deploy resources. The lack of participation helps explain last week’s drama. Sellers showed up or were forced through money management practices (e.g. stop-losses or options triggered).
On 18 December 2015, the Abe administration announced details of the much-anticipated agriculture, forestry and fisheries-related supplementary budget. It contains a list of expenditure items designed to assist the agricultural sector to respond to the impact of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement upon implementation.
1) Chinese policymakers introduced circuit-breakers for its equity markets on Monday, but then suspended them on Thursday, 2) PBOC finally fixed USD/CNY lower (albeit marginally) Friday after eight straight days of higher fixings, 3) Tensions have risen on the Korea peninsula after the North detonated some sort of nuclear weapon, 4) The State Bank of Vietnam has moved to a more market-based exchange rate, 5) Brazil’s former President Lula has been ordered to testify as a witness for a case regarding jailed lobbyist Paes dos Santos, 6) Venezuelan President Maduro instituted a major cab
Three separate studies show improvement in the U.S. job market, but investors globally express concern that growth expectations extend far beyond reality. The Gallup Good Jobs index, which measures jobs that offer 30+ hours per week of employment and a regular paycheck, saw a small improvement. According to new data released Thursday, the index rose 0.1 point to 45.3 percent in December, above the 44.9 percent reading in November.
In architecture, there is a dictum that ‘form follows function’. The architect decides a building’s use and then designs the building for those purposes. In Vietnam’s process of economic reforms, the reverse is often the case — ‘function follows form’. Structures are put in place and then it is hoped that the functionality will follow. This appears to be the case in reforms to the country’s banking sector.
A structural decline in the American economy looms as several economic indicators weaken significantly at the same time. In November, the United States trade balance weakened by $42.4 billion, with exports falling to $182.2 billion.
The Shanghai stock market has had a rough start to the New Year. Bourses are down and trading was halted on its opening day after the market plunged, triggering the new circuit-breaker mechanism designed to limit volatility. It looks as though 2016 will be no less turbulent for China’s stock market than 2015.
Store sales saw higher growth for the last week of 2015, as post-holiday sales enticed more activity than a year ago. Clearance sales drew “a strong response” according to Redbook Research, a retail research firm.
Chinese shares and the yuan stabilized with the apparent help of the government’s guiding hand, but global markets are still on the defensive. The euro extended yesterday’s decline through the $1.08 level. The next immediate technical objective is near $1.0730.
