Philippine President-elect Duterte’s Black and White in a Gray World


To the Philippines’ president-elect Rodrigo Duterte, the world is black and white, with hardly any shades of grey in between. His view informs his policy approach. His law and order platform, for example, promised change in a country riddled with poor infrastructure and public services, a high crime rate and deeply rooted corruption.

Is India Getting in its Own Way and Hampering Growth?


Despite historical misadventures with socialism and recent positive experiences with liberalisation, India continues to regularly fight the market. The most recent example is the Delhi government’s move to ban Uber’s surge pricing, a regulation that can only result in a net social loss.

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Categorized as India

Young and Old Weigh in on the Brexit


The betting and events markets have shifted more decisively than the polls in favor of the UK to remain in the EU.  Sterling extended its rally from $1.4010 last Thursday to nearly $1.4785 today, as the market participants adjust positions. 

What is particular striking is that the asymmetrical perceptions of the personal impact of a vote to leave the EU.  The Great Graphic here was posted on Business Insider, which took it from Kantar, a research firm.

Low Voter Turnout could Worry Japan’s LDP


On 10 July, Japan will hold its upper house elections with half of its seats to be contested. This will be the first time that 18 and 19 year-old citizens will be able to cast a vote in a national election.

There was a possibility that this would be a rare double election, but a number of factors convinced Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to decide against this. One factor was caution over placing any additional burdens on the areas struck by April’s Kumamoto earthquake.

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Categorized as Japan

India’s EOUs Flourished…So What Happened?


The export-oriented unit (EOU) scheme was launched in India in 1980 to boost exports and increase production. Under the scheme, Indian companies that produce goods solely for export can register as ‘export-oriented units’. In doing so, these producers become exempt from duty payments on a range of resources used in production.

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Categorized as India

Is China Setting Up for Lower Growth in the Medium-Term?


Recently in London, where I was analyzing the Eurozone and UK economies, I also had the opportunity to conduct a fairly holistic analysis of China’s real economy and existing imbalances in its financial sector.

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Categorized as China

Markets Undergo a Mild Psychology Shift


Since the murder of UK MP Cox last week, the mood in the markets shifted.  Today is the continuation what was seen in the last two sessions last week.  The difference is that participants seem more confident, as the polls and betting odds seem to support our initial recognition of the tragedy’s potential to impact psychology. 

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Categorized as Markets

World Bank Provides Guidance to Zimbabwe on Its Ongoing Cash Shortage


The African nation of Zimbabwe has been in the depths of a cash shortage with crippling effects: Zimbabwean banks have been forced to limit the amount of cash they give to their customers; foreign currencies (particularly the United States dollar) have become more widely accepted than domestic currency; and money laundering and capital flight have skyrocketed.

Divided Polls, Economic Views on Brexit


New polls of UK voters show the Brexit vote remains uncertain.  After several weeks of the vote to leave the European Union gaining, more recently the polls have become murkier, with a near-tie between the leave and remain camp. According to The Financial Times, a British financial newspaper, both sides have a 44% vote, while other polls show a spread of just 1% or 2% in favor of remaining.

Who Will be Correct about Britain’s Economy?


Campaigners for both the UK leaving and remaining in the EU have made claims regarding how a Brexit will affect the country’s finances.