Japan’s labour market situation is improving. The unemployment rate of 3.1 percent in October 2015 was the lowest for 20 years. In addition, although improvement has been slow, wage growth has been accelerating. However, Japan’s labour market still faces several serious issues.
Instead of boosting growth, the Bank of Japan’s negative interest rates will contribute to domestic fiscal deterioration, regional risks, and even global threats. About a week ago, the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) governor Haruhiko Kuroda said to the parliament: “We are not considering a cut in interest on bank reserves.”
Prime Minister Cameron has enthusiastically embraced the EC draft proposals in response to the UK’s demands. The wires quote Cameron as saying, “I would opt in to EU membership on these good terms.”
The proposals presented by European Council President Tusk are weak on details that are still to be decided, though Cameron quickly seized upon them to claim: I have delivered commitments in my election manifesto.” It has yet to be seen if it is sufficient to convince several of the Eurosceptic cabinet members and backbenchers.
A little over a month after the Federal Reserve confidently proclaimed the economic strength of the U.S., several indicators are showing signs of a shrinking economy. Manufacturing activity continues to decline, marking the fourth month that U.S. manufacturing has weakened. According to the Institute for Supply Management, manufacturing activity fell from the previous month and is shrinking. The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM’s) Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.2%, with employment and inventories contracting.
In 2012, Australia’s Asian Century White Paper outlined fundamental policy and attitudinal changes that would be required if Australia was to make the most of the opportunities presented by the Asian century. Yet it has had no impact on policy in Australia.
No country in Southeast Asia shoots itself in the foot more than Thailand. With so much going for it, the second-largest economy in the region still manages to underperform spectacularly. Its growth trajectory is in the 2–3 percent range even though it has the potential to track twice that figure. Two decades after it was considered a consolidating democracy, Thailand is now led by outright military-authoritarian rule. In much of the region, there will be considerable good news in 2016, but in Thailand, good news seems hard to find.
Since becoming India’s prime minister in May 2014, Narendra Modi has sought to make the country ‘open for business’. But while there is hope that his pro-business policies — often dubbed ‘Modinomics’ — will improve economic growth, aspects of India’s foreign trade policy seem at odds with the country’s aspiration for deeper engagement with the world economy.
As we suspected, the current EM bounce still has some legs. The BOJ’s surprise easing helped EM and risk end on last week on a strong note, and we expect that to carry over into this week. Within EM, we will start to see the first readings for January. The biggest risk perhaps is the jobs report on Friday. Soft US data has helped push out Fed tightening expectations, but a strong reading here could put it back on the radar screen.
A continuing decline in union membership now means that there are less union workers in the United States than at any point in history since World War II. Union membership fell to 11.1% of the total number of wage and salary workers in the U.S. as part of a trend that has been continuing since 1980, according to a new study by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
1) Korea’s Financial Services Commission will introduce a so-called “omnibus account” for foreigners investing in local stocks, 2) Malaysian Attorney General Apandi Ali closed the investigation into transfers of foreign money into Prime Minister Najib Razak’s personal bank accounts, 3) The South African Reserve Bank increased the pace of its tightening, 4) The Egyptian central bank eased restrictions on dollar cash deposits, 5) The Turkish central bank raised its 2016 and 2107 inflation forecasts after the minimum wage was hiked 30%, 6) Brazil’s COPOM minutes c
