Markets Archives - Page 369 of 731

Warnings of Brexit Risks Overwhelm British Voters

In a plea to British voters to vote to stay in the group, many world leaders are citing the risks of Britain leaving the European Union. Most recently, Bank of Japan Chief Haruhiko Kuroda warned that Britain leaving the EU would have a serious impact on the world’s economy and that it would hurt Japan. “This could be potentially quite serious. If Brexit is agreed, it would have a significant and serious impact on the global economy,” he said at the most recent G7 meeting in Japan.

Emerging Markets’ Rocky Road

EM had another rocky week, but managed to end on a slightly firmer note Friday. Market repricing of Fed tightening risk was the big driver last week, and that could carry over into this week. There are several Fed speakers in the days ahead, capped off with Fed chief Yellen on Friday.

Several EM central banks meet this week, including Israel, Turkey, Hungary, and Colombia. There is some risk of a dovish surprise from Turkey, while Hungary is expected to continue easing. Colombia is an outlier, with high inflation seen leading to another 25 bp hike.

New Philippine President Duterte’s ‘To Do List’ is a Long One

While the Aquino reforms ignited great progress in the Philippines, the new president will favor inclusive growth and greater pragmatism in foreign policies that will shape Southeast Asia’s future.

The Week in Review: The Fed Fights the Market

The Federal Reserve dominated economic news this week, as the central bank prepared America for higher borrowing costs. Citing economic strength despite just 0.5% GDP growth in the first quarter of 2016, the Federal Reserve reiterated its view that June would be an appropriate month to increase its Federal funds rate target. This rate influences the interest rates on many forms of debt, from U.S. Treasuries to mortgages.

Eurozone Economy: Outlook (Near-Term), Problems and Solutions

This is an abridged version of this article. For the full article please see here.

I was in Belgium in 2011-2012, when I witnessed the escalating ferocity with which the sovereign debt crisis undermined confidence and economic activity across the Eurozone. Four years later, in 2016, economic recovery from the crisis continues to remain fragile – with highly lackluster or tepid growth having become endemic in the Eurozone.

Housing Starts, e-Commerce Rise Boosts Inflation

More houses are being built in America, and Americans are buying more products online, which is helping inflation rise. New housing starts jumped 6.6% from the prior month to 1.17 million in April, according to a new report by the Census Bureau. Single-family building permits saw a 1.5% rise from March, and are continuing to drive the increase in housing in America.

Africa (not exactly) Rising

Self-congratulatory rhetoric keeps springing from the lips of World Economic Forum elites – at the expense of reality. Software executive Brett Parker claims “Africa will probably remain natural resources-driven for the next two decades at least.” African Leadership University’s Fred Swaniker

India’s Job Creation Data not Reflective of Good Times

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s promise of ‘good days’ that underpinned his 2013 election campaign is premised on moving India away from its dole-and-entitlement development model to one that empowers youth by generating large-scale employment. In that context, recently released employment figures from the country’s Labour Bureau are alarming.

Fed Eyes June Rate Hike

Mixed economic data persists, but that isn’t stopping the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates. In an attempt to make borrowing more expensive for consumers, the Federal Reserve may increase its Federal rate target in June.

While markets have been pricing a very low probability of a June rate hike, the Federal Reserve has gone on the offensive, with officials giving several interviews with the press hinting that June will see a rate hike.

China’s Economy: Mostly Planned or Mostly Market

There is a recurring question on the nature of China’s economy — is it mostly planned or mostly market? This question has become more concrete this year as China’s partners are scheduled to decide on whether or not to grant China ‘market economy status’. If adopted, this would limit WTO-compatible trade remedies.