More experts are weighing in on Britain’s upcoming referendum on its membership in the EU. A flurry of warnings from bankers, economists, politicians, and experts have bombarded Brits in recent months, with daily discussions at the BBC, The Times, the Telegraph, and other major British publications urging British citizens to vote to remain in the EU.
While watching the debate between the Treasurer Scott Morrison and Shadow Treasurer Chris Bowen today at the National Press Club one would not find much in the way of new information, compared to what has been outlined during the budget and debated in the course of the subsequent election campaign.
Meanwhile, one would wonder if the two contenders for the top economic management job in Australia live in the same country.
Sri Lanka’s balance of payments is in dire straits. The country’s mounting foreign and domestic public debt, a huge fiscal deficit and a severe foreign exchange shortfall have led to potentially calamitous economic circumstances. Sri Lanka has not yet secured the means to meet its upcoming foreign loan repayments — US$4.5 billion is due over the next year, to be followed by another US$4 billion in the subsequent year.
For various reasons, well beyond the scope of this short note, China has amassed huge industrial capacity, well beyond its ability to absorb. In part, that is one of the challenges that the “One Belt One Road” addresses. Export the spare capacity by building infrastructure, networking east and central Asia (included parts of the former Soviet Union and the Middle East.
In the EM equity space, India (+5.3%), Taiwan (+4.1%), and Hong Kong (+3.6%) have outperformed this week, while Colombia (-1.5%), Qatar (-0.9%), and China (-0.5%) have underperformed. To put this in better context, MSCI EM rose 2.9% this week while MSCI DM rose 1.9%.
A number of economic studies show renewed strength in the American economy, helping the Federal Reserve boost its estimates for growth. The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s real-time GDP estimator, GDPNow, has raised its estimates for growth to 2.9%, an increase of 16% from the last estimate. That is the highest growth estimate in over a year.
The boost is being driven by renewed business investment in the United States, which rose from a negative reading to 0.4% thanks to a Census study of durable manufacturing goods.
The South Korean government will implement a new law known as the Improper Solicitation and Graft Act in September, which bans pricey gift exchanges during business transactions, according to Bloomberg.
Critics contend that the law will affect an economy already suffering from low consumption and lackluster GDP growth. Under the mandate, officials cannot receive meals over 30,000 won and gifts over 50,000 won, but journalists and teachers would be subject to the same rules.
American trade policy is failing to shrink the trade deficit with other countries as weak demand crimps services industries throughout the country. The trade balance between the United States and foreign countries rose 3.4% on a month-over-month basis in April, rising to $57.5 billion; however, that also represents the lowest trade deficit since February 2015.
It seems that not a day goes by without another Brexit economic forecast – whether it is one from the Treasury, the OECD or Economists for Brexit. Some say it will cost Britain to leave; others say it will be beneficial to the UK economy.
When the leaders of G7 countries descend on Japan later this week, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has taken the opportunity to invite them to visit Ise Shrine as well. Although there were many reasons for the choice of Ise-Shima as location for the summit, it is impossible to ignore the underlying sentiments of religious nationalism.
