China Archives - Page 7 of 54

China’s Transformation Includes President Xi’s Middle East Tour

President Xi Jinping’s three-nation tour in the Middle East heralds a shift from US regime change to Chinese economic development.

President Xi’s tour took place amid a perilous moment in the region. Saudi Arabia is struggling with the plunge of oil prices, rapidly rising debt and a war against Yemen. In Egypt, opposition is increasing against the perceived successors of President Hosni Mubarak’s three-decade long rule. In Iran, sanctions have been lifted after decades of international insulation.

Should a Slowing China be a Surprise?

After intensive industrialization, growth deceleration is natural. No nation has enjoyed sustained double-digit growth after industrialization. The real test of resilience is the continued increase of Chinese living standards.

China’s Structural Recalibration

China has posted its lowest annual GDP growth since 1990. The slowdown is seen as a major concern for some investors, but against a backdrop of disappointing consumer spending, intensifying deflationary pressures, tepid export growth, and a stock market that looks out of control, 6.9% growth was expected for 2015. It is not the stellar growth of the past decades and is down from 7.3% a year earlier, but it is still decent given local and global economic conditions.

China’s Really Big Population Shift to the Cities

When the 18th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) decided to abolish the one-child policy in October 2015 it made headlines throughout the world. However, while the abolition of the policy is the result of the Chinese government’s newfound concern over low fertility, the low birth rate is only one of several major demographic challenges facing China.

Xi’s Anti-corruption Program Lacks Details

These days, political death in China comes in two moves. The first is when the dreaded Central Discipline and Inspection Commission (CDIC) announce that you are under investigation. After that, you live on a sort of life-support machine until the final blade falls with your expulsion from the Communist Party. Then there is no turning back.

China’s Potential Economic Credibility Hit

The sudden, sharp fall of Chinese stock prices twice in 2015 and again this month does not necessarily herald a further slowdown of GDP growth. However, investor confidence, the bedrock of a healthy economy, has been shaken both in China and throughout the world.

As Chinese leaders struggle to implement market-based reforms, a severe economic crisis that causes social disruption cannot be completely ruled out. In such a case, what might happen?

China Officials Warn of Global Financial Crisis

Chinese officials predict economic turmoil for the global economy. State Councillor Yang Jiechi told G-20 representatives in Beijing that recent volatility and “constant changes and intense transformations” will lead to unprecedented challenges to the world. “It is not possible to completely discard the possibility that an economic crisis could once again take place, and the problem should not be neglected,” he said in the meeting, adding “preventing or reducing negative effects from countries’ domestic policy measures is a pressing task.&quot

Look to Guandong for China’s Transformation

China’s southern province, Guangdong, is emerging as a globally important innovation zone and consumer market. It moves into the future as it builds a post-industrial society.

The forces that once boosted Guangdong’s dramatic economic boom – industrialization, booming world trade, cheap labor and low-cost manufacturing – are fading. With the slowest growth pace in 25 years, economic anxiety is spreading. That standard narrative is part of the story, but not the full story.

China Casts a Wider Anti-Corruption Net

As China’s anti-corruption drive is expanding from the public and corporate sector to financial institutions, some argue that it is hurting economic growth. In reality, it is the rule of law that can ensure China’s resilient growth.

Chinese Economy Likely to Decelerate Further in the Fourth Quarter, Albeit Moderately

China grew at 7% year-on-year in the first and the second quarter and 6.9% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2015. This is its weakest quarterly economic performance since first quarter of 2009 according to official data, growth is likely to decelerate further – albeit moderately – in the fourth quarter (i.e. GDP growth will probably be a bit lower than 6.9% year-on-year in the fourth quarter). Consequently, annual GDP growth will be lower than the official target of 7% in 2015.