Category: China

China’s Ageing Population could Hinder Per Capita Income Growth

In East Asia, rapid income growth in the second half of last century has produced unprecedented and rapid population ageing. Rising living standards and incomes tend to induce longer lifespans and fewer births per woman, leading to dramatic increases in the proportion of old people within the total population. Where it took France 115 years to double the share of its population that is 65 years and over from 7 to 14 percent, the same shift in China will take just 25 years.

China was a Regional Preeminent Power for Centuries, and it is Trying Again

Most of us have never known a world where the United States was not the preeminent power. Now things are starting to look rather different. Not only is much of the global economy stuck in an underperforming rut, but there is also an alternative, seemingly more successful, model of economic development on offer in the so-called ‘Beijing consensus’.

It is precisely this reality, and the hitherto impressive performance of the Chinese economy, that has led some to conclude that, as Martin Jacques puts it, China will ultimately ‘rule the world’.

China’s Changing Economy…it will Take a While

China is undergoing profound changes in its economic policy and structure. These changes represent a new model of Chinese economic growth. The recent Five Year Plan (FYP) is an evolutionary document. Building on earlier official statements on the new model of growth, it provides the most elaborate statement to date on the model’s content and implementation.

Is China Setting Up for Lower Growth in the Medium-Term?

Recently in London, where I was analyzing the Eurozone and UK economies, I also had the opportunity to conduct a fairly holistic analysis of China’s real economy and existing imbalances in its financial sector.

As China’s Growth Slows, Income Inequality Speeds Up

The slowdown in growth in China is a familiar story. Annual GDP growth has fallen from an average of 10 percent to less than 7 percent. While Chinese growth is still significant in absolute terms, slower growth combined with rising income inequality is becoming a big concern for the Chinese public.

Chinese Investors Maintain Interest in North Korea

China is North Korea’s largest trading partner and has consistently encouraged cross-border trade and non-official investments in North Korea since 2006. Yet, despite its low-cost raw materials, cheap labour and large market potential, North Korea remains as a high-risk investment destination for Chinese businesses.

OBOR’s Success and the Link to the Chinese Diaspora

A multitude of views have coloured the understanding of China’s One Belt, One Road (OBOR) strategy. Some view OBOR through the lens of geopolitical competition and are wary of China’s rise. Yet, the OBOR vision has intrinsic value beyond fears of Chinese geopolitical ambitions. This is especially so in regards to people-to-people connections in which the Chinese diaspora are inexorably involved.

A New Cultural Revolution is Out, and so is Liberal Democracy

This month marks 50 years since the official beginning of China’s Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution. On 16 May 1966, the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party issued an internal circular denouncing ‘revisionists’ in the Party leadership. Prepared by Chairman Mao Zedong, the circular was a warning to Party cadres not to challenge his leadership.

China’s Industrial Capacity is as Big as…China

For various reasons, well beyond the scope of this short note, China has amassed huge industrial capacity, well beyond its ability to absorb.  In part, that is one of the challenges that the “One Belt One Road” addresses.  Export the spare capacity by building infrastructure, networking east and central Asia (included parts of the former Soviet Union and the Middle East.