When All Options are a Degree of Bad


Churchill reportedly once quipped that one can always count on the Americans to do the right thing after they have exhausted the other possibilities. That description fitting for Europe at the moment.

Greece should not have been allowed to amass such a large debt relative to the size of its economy in the first place.  The debt restructurings were too limited and too small to fundamentally change the underlying debt dynamics.  The weekend referendum in Greece marks the end of the extend-and-pretend strategy.

Published
Categorized as Greece

No, the Greek Crisis Won’t End Quickly, or Well


Now that the Greek referendum has produced a decisive No vote, never mind what happened before. The real crisis starts now.

Recognise that the Greek people faced a difficult choice. The referendum itself was a political gambit by the Syriza government to seek to split the Eurozone governments and obtain a better deal. The politics of defiance has won. It was a major gamble, so will it pay off?

Published
Categorized as Greece

The Fallout from Varoufakis’ Exit


Greece’s economy is in ruins. It is hard to imagine how things could have gone worse. Banks closed, no liquidity, very high unemployment, businesses closing down or fleeing the country, and the brain drain is accelerating.

Now the Greek people have voted No in a referendum that some cast as being about whether they would remain in the Eurozone – though many were unclear about what exactly the vote meant. What it certainly means is that the Greek people are deeply wounded by the prolonged recession of the last six years.

Published
Categorized as Greece

Grexit Fears Heighten after No Vote


Greeks voted against accepting creditors’ terms for austerity in exchange for an emergency loan to help them avoid defaulting to the IMF and ECB.

The vote was largely expected, but it has still caused turmoil in equity markets in Europe and in the United States, where fears of a Grexit are steering investors to avoid risk. After voting against the creditors’ demands, Greece may find it harder to negotiate with Germany and the EU as a whole, who largely want Greece to accept more austerity in order to pay back loans that were acquired in the 2000s.

Greeks Urged to Vote “No” on Referendum


After bringing a vote on Greece’s credit crisis to the people, the prime minister has asked voters to vote against the proposal.

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras shut down talks with creditors and Germany last weekend and announced a referendum. Alongside the announcement, Greece’s banks and stock market shut down and capital controls were imposed on the country, which remained intact for three days.

The IMF to Greece: Where’s Our Money?


Greece has formally fallen into arrears with the IMF, and the second aid package has expired.  The markets have taken it in stride.  The euro briefly pushed below $1.1100 but snapped back quickly amid reports that Greece is willing to accept most of creditors’ conditions.   The euro bounced almost three-quarters of a cent on the headlines, but it likely reflects more about short-term market positioning than a serious new development. 

Published
Categorized as Greece

Growing Nightmare For Greece


Greece is facing its nightmares: a complete shutdown for a week for its banks. What remained open were the ATMs as people rushed in to withdraw as much cash as possible. But the bigger news is around Greek referendum, which will be a decisive factor for Greece’s destiny. Greece was the first Eurozone country in need of bailouts in 2010 and the years that followed. While it was obvious that many rules in the Eurozone were bent for Greece, the money it needed always remained insufficient for its complete revival.

Published
Categorized as Greece

Where Does Greece Go From Here?


The markets initially responded dramatically to the weekend new of the Greek referendum, capital controls and an extended bank holiday.  The markets quickly stabilized and have recovered a bit in the European morning.  The Swiss National Bank confirmed intervention to limit the franc rise.   

Published
Categorized as Greece

The Week Begins, as Most do these Days, with Greece


The inexperienced Greek government lost its nerve.  The brink was less than a week away, and it blinked.  It changed tactics at last possible minute.  It took a reckless political gamble.

There was still no agreement of course, but Prime Minister Tsipras was standing his ground. The differences between what Greece had offered and what the official creditors demanded was about two bln euros a year.  The last debate was turning on how much savings should be achieved by tax increases and how much by spending cuts. 

Published
Categorized as Greece

The Warning Signs of Greece’s Economic Health


The Greece crisis has lasted for more than five years and now the meeting with its creditors seems to be lasting for days. The country needs new bailouts in order to pay back its earlier debts. This week Greece might be reaching a decisive point: to stay in the Euro or exit. A look at its banking system highlights the troubled economy of Greece.

Published
Categorized as Greece