The Greek crisis has periodically dominated international headlines since 2009, when its economic and fiscal crunch led to a series of debt downgrades and ushered in fears of default. So what lessons does the crisis hold for the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC)?
It took nearly eight years, but a dozen countries on both sides of the Pacific Rim, which account for 40% of the world’s GDP reached a trade agreement. Attention will now shift to the ratification process.
Pundits and policymakers increasingly see changing great-power politics in Asia as a challenge to ASEAN. China’s growing military assertiveness in the South China Sea, the US ‘rebalancing’ strategy, Japan’s moves to reinterpret its constitution, and India’s growing military presence and assertive diplomacy all press upon ASEAN’s choices in the region.
The US dollar’s recovery gains pared following the drop in response to the poor jobs data, except against the yen. There the greenback extended its gains toward JPY120.25, with the help of weak Japanese data, and speculation that the BOJ will revise down inflation forecasts this week, setting the stage for an expansion of QQE later this month.
The unexpectedly poor September US jobs data weakened the greenback’s technical tone, as questions about the underlying strength of the world’s largest economy, and the implications for the Fed’s take-off, intensify. US economic data scheduled to release in the week ahead are not of sufficient heft to alter the pessimism spurred, but not caused, by the jobs data. Recall that earlier in the week, the US reported it new flash reading on merchandise trade. The unexpectedly large deficit caused the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow to halve its estimate for Q3 growth to 0.9
Ongoing disputes in the South China Sea between China and four ASEAN member nations — Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam — have dealt a major blow to the centrality and unity of ASEAN. Internal differences were on public display during the ASEAN Foreign Ministers Summit in 2012, leading to the non-issuance of the joint communiqué for the first time in ASEAN’s 45 years of existence.
There has been a lot of news about the possibility of raising minimum wages to higher and higher rates. However, stories about the definition of extreme poverty make news less frequently. In fact, most would probably be surprised to find just what the extreme poverty line is on a global level.
Russia has recently raised the priority given to East Asia in its foreign policy. This trend has further accelerated following the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis in 2014. How is the policy progressing and what is its impact on Russia’s relations with China and Japan? Three key events — Victory Day in China, the Eastern Economic Forum held in Vladivostok and the visit of Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev to the disputed Kuril Islands — can help uncover the answer.
The global capital markets are stabilizing in Europe after continued selling in Asia after the US slide yesterday. The dollar is narrowly mixed against the major currencies. Higher oil and copper prices have helped the helped steady the Australian dollar. After briefly dipping below $0.6940, it recovered to $0.6985 in the European morning. The US dollar recorded new multi-year highs against the Canadian dollar near CAD1.3430, before pulling back to CAD1.3400.
Bloomberg created a function that claims to give the odds of a Fed move by interpolating from the Fed funds futures and options contracts. It is widely used, but I remain a skeptic.
