Bashing Drug-Makers for Short-term Political Gain has Risks


At Tuesday’s Democratic debate, they asked candidates to name the enemies they are most proud of making.  Front-runner Hillary Clinton’s answer? Drug companies (along with the National Rifle Association, “the Iranians” and Republicans).

Moving ChAFTA Forward with Worker Safeguards


Labor’s proposals designed to “safeguard” Australian workers under the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement (ChAFTA) are a step in the right direction and are likely to break the impasse that has prevented the trade agreement passing through the Senate.

In essence, Labor has recommended amending the Migration Act 1958 to address three areas of concern arising from the ChAFTA.

Can the Fed Help the U.S. Side-step a Worldwide Economic Malaise?


Markets and economists have long been obsessed with the Fed’s first interest rate hike in nine years, but it seems the factors are not reciprocating positively to what the Fed is looking for. Reports on labor and emerging economies coupled with low inflation, strong dollar and falling commodity prices suggest that the US economy may not be as sound as expected.

Reaction to the jobs report

Where are the Dollar Bulls Going?


I remain a dollar bull on a medium and longer-term basis, but recognize that stale longs are bailing, and there is an establishment of new momentum shorts. 

Could Koizumi Have Done More for Sino-Japan Relations?


Relations between Japan and China shifted significantly during the Koizumi years and this has created ongoing issues for the relationship between the two countries even today. Junichiro Koizumi served as Japanese prime minister from April 2001 to September 2006, — the third-longest-serving administration in post-war Japan. This was a time when China increased its global and regional presence and importance, a change recognised by the Japanese government. However, domestic politics in both countries came to hinder all opportunity for bilateral summit meetings.

The Importance of Keeping a Cool Head Over the South China Sea


A bipartisan letter from the US House of Representatives has urged the US government to verbally and physically challenge, China’s purported claims to 12 nautical mile territorial seas around its artificial formations in the South China Sea. The letter also implies that China’s actions are threatening ‘freedom of navigation’.

Moving On…the Counter-Trend End


Yesterday’s mostly counter-trend moves ended abruptly.  A second governor of the Federal Reserve voiced opposition to the intimation by Yellen and Fischer, and several regional presidents that a rate hike is still appropriate this year.  This helped renew the downside pressure on the dollar.  It is lower against all the majors and most emerging market currencies today.

Angus Deaton’s Path to the Nobel Prize


On Monday in the staff common rooms of economics departments throughout the world, I doubt anyone was complaining about the award of this year’s Nobel Prize for economics to Angus Deaton.

It is a choice perhaps with a view to addressing criticism that the discipline of economics can sometimes seem like ideology rather than science. It also appears to favour the micro over the macro, the experience of individuals, rather than the grand plans of policy makers.

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Categorized as Economics

What Does Cyber-Espionage for National Security Cover?


The cyber theft of millions of personal dossiers from the United States Office of Personnel Management (OPM), revealed by US authorities in June 2015, has put the US government in an awkward position. In April 2015, US Defense Secretary Ash Carter announced an updated cyber strategy, according to which the United States would retaliate against ‘cyberattacks of significant consequence’.

Are Recent Global Market Trends Reversing?


The recent trends in the global capital markets are reversing today.  Although the price action yesterday warned of the risk, there have been five fundamental developments that are contributing to the price action today. 

The first development was China’s September trade figures.  The balance was little changed at $60.34 bln 9$60.24 bln in August).  The consensus had forecast a fall toward $48.2 bln.  Less weak exports and considerable weaker imports drove the larger than expected surplus.