What Does One Do When Sanctions Do Not Work?


Economic sanctions and divestment campaigns are attractive but often flawed tactics for accomplishing international political goals.

The social stigma the campaigns create often fails to match the economic pain these campaigns inflict, making the costs of resisting them for governments like Russia, Syria and Iran tolerable in most cases.

Oil Sector Job Loss Spillover Effects are Unknown


Outside of an individual’s oil stock holdings, damage to the economy from the fall in oil has been pretty minimal so far. Indeed, the price cut in home heating oil and gasoline has probably outweighed the damage from lower oil prices… so far. Unfortunately, this situation may not last.

Consumer Spending Ticks Upward, Jobless Falls to 15-year Low


Consumer spending rose by the largest amount in nearly half a year even as incomes remain stagnant.  According to a new report by the Commerce Department, consumer spending rose 0.4% in March, which is double the February rate. While a sharp rise, it falls short of the 0.5% growth rate that economists had expected.

Adjusted for inflation, the growth was even lower: 0.3%, up from the post-inflation flat rate of the prior month.

The United States Creeps Closer to ‘Normalized’ Monetary Policy


One of the most important forces shaping the investment climate is that the US is closer to beginning to normalize monetary policy than other major countries and regions.  That gap may be measured in years, not months or quarters, and has not reached the apogee.  The Federal Reserve will likely hike rates in the next six months, while other major central banks, from Beijing and Tokyo and Sydney, to Frankfurt and Stockholm, that are providing monetary policy for nearly 2/3 of the world economy are still committed to easing policy.

ASEAN Dynamics Work Well, but Security Concerns Cloud its Future


The dynamics at work in ASEAN are an underâ€appreciated but crucial component of the Asia Pacific’s geoâ€political equation. Understanding these dynamics offers insights for policymakers reviewing the United States’ rebalance to Asia.

With more than 600 million people, the ten-nation ASEAN is a major trading partner for Australia, China, the US, and beyond. ASEAN’s significance comes from its position astride strategic and economic choke points of vital concern to countries that rely on free and unfettered access for their security and prosperity.

The FOMC Meeting Begins, and the Market Waits


The US dollar has yet to stabilize against the euro and sterling, although it has steadied against the dollar-bloc currencies and yen.  The euro bid through the $1.10 level on the back of stronger month supply growth and the first growth in private credit in two years.  After finishing yesterday’s North American session on its highs, fully recovering from the disappointing Q1 GDP, sterling has extended its gains to $1.54.  Since the April 13 low near $1.4565, sterling has appreciated by 5.8% or nearly 8.5 cents.