Category: Economics

Trade Group Says Opening More Chinese Sectors to Foreign Competition Critical to U.S. Investment Treaty


The United States and China have the two largest economies in the world, making an investment treaty an obvious course of action in the opinion of many financial analysts. Yet, such a treaty has been sorely lacking for some time. After seven years of talks, it looks like it could finally come about in the relatively near future. However, the negotiations will soon enter the most contentious phase of talks: discussing formal market access.

Trade Deficit Widens as Job Openings Skyrocket


The U.S. is importing and exporting fewer goods while the demand for workers rises to a record.

The IMF’s Review of the US Fed is Particularly Critical


In a normal review of the US, the IMF recently called on the Federal Reserve to drop its dot-plot tool and replace it with a single staff forecast, like the ECB.  We too have been critical of the individual macroeconomic forecasts and appropriate level of Fed funds.  We think it is a particularly noisy channel of Fed communication. 

Underscoring the Need for Macro and Microprudential Risk Monitoring


The global financial crisis of 2007–2009 underlined the need for central banks and financial regulators to take a macroprudential perspective on financial risk, i.e., to monitor and regulate the buildup of systemic financial risk in the economy as a whole, as opposed to simply monitoring the condition of individual financial institutions (microprudential regulation).

U.S. Services Demand Picks Up


Demand for services rose in the U.S. as non-manufacturing activity increased slightly, as many analysts expected.

In June, the Institute of Supply Management’s non-manufacturing index rose to 56%, up from 55.7% in May in a sign that demand for services continued to increase in America. The ISM noted that the reading indicated “continued growth” in the economy, with the gains driven by more business activity and new orders.

More Business

Greece, and Yes, other Market News on Radar Screens


The US dollar is enjoying broad gains today.  It is extending its recent gains after a consolidative session yesterday as investors tried digesting the weekend developments.  The yen is the sole exception among the majors.  It is managing to hold its own against the dollar. 

BIS Fears Central Banks Laying Groundwork for Next Financial Crisis


The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) is the oldest global financial organization still in existence. Made up of 60 central banks from all over the world, it monitors national bank regulation trends and their impacts on the global economy.

China Appears to be Warming to Myanmar


At the invitation of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), Aung San Suu Kyi, the leader of Myanmar’s opposition National League for Democracy (NLD), made her first historic visit to China on 10–14 June 2015. Her visit enhanced understanding between the two parties and promoted friendly and cooperative relations between China and Myanmar.

Three Key Meetings Follow Greece’s No Vote


The global capital markets responded in a typical risk-off fashion to the sharp victory in Greece for the rejection of the creditors’ demands.  However, by the time European markets opened, some semblance of stability emerged and European equities gapped lower, but quickly began recovering.  Core bond yields fell and peripheral bonds weakened, but in a contained fashion. 

The Upcoming Week’s Top Happenings


Polls indicate that the outcome of the Greek referendum is too close to call.  However, the results of the Scottish Referendum and the British national election are fresh our memories, and the polls there provided little guidance.  While there is much uncertainty, there are a few things look clear.