The US dollar’s upside momentum, sparked by the strong January jobs report, and anxiety over the brinksmanship politics in Europe over Greece (and Ukraine), faded last week. The weaker than expected US retail sales and some optimism over another ceasefire in Ukraine and suggestive signs from negotiations with the new Greek government gave the dollar bulls cause for pause.
A ceasefire in Ukraine appears to have been reached, and despite some confusion late yesterday, no compromise has been struck over the new Greek government’s demand that it is recognized that the previous agreements are not working. However, that may give a false sense of what is the more intractable problem.
The Euro group meeting today and the heads of state meeting tomorrow cannot resolve the standoff with Greece. The logic of each side demands negotiating until the very last minute as the only way to ensure achieving the most. Of course, the nature of the brinksmanship exercise risks a miscalculation that sends both into the abyss. Meanwhile the lack of contagion emboldens the creditors while fresh off the electoral victory and vote of confidence emboldens the new Greek government.
Stocks surged in Europe and the United States as rumors floated about an announcement, maybe tomorrow, regarding an agreement over Greece’s debt.
Equities rose as rumors surfaced that the European Commission will announce a compromise between the European Central Bank, the German Bundesbank, and the Greek government. The EC denied the rumors, acknowledging that “intense contacts” continue between the EC President Jean-Claude Juncker and Greek representatives.
Oil prices may fall again by over 50% even as rising geopolitical tensions threaten energy supply chains in Europe. A report by Citigroup suggests that oil can fall to as little as $20 per barrel as a result of historically unprecedented supply storages, a situation exacerbated by record production in Brazil and Russia as the countries seek to make up for falling prices with higher volumes.
The discussion about Greece and its future in the monetary union, or like Greenspan opined, the lack thereof, has focused on economic issues to the near-exclusion of all else. This is myopic. There are important geostrategic interests at stake.
Historians continue to debate what country lost at Yalta, the territorial settlement at the end of WWII that recognized a Soviet sphere of influence in eastern and central Europe. Will they one day debate who lost Greece?
If ever we wanted a reminder of how global capitalism has got things wrong, the Ebola outbreak in West Africa serves the purpose well. Our assumption that economic growth is essential is not only a feature of markets and politics, it also feeds into our thinking on development goals such as poverty reduction. The hope somehow remains that the relentless pursuit of production and consumption will trickle down to deliver more substantial benefits.
Disasters and political scandals dominated South Korean politics in 2014. And hopes for progress on North–South relations on the Korean peninsula were left unfulfilled.
For the West, democracy is not only a core value but also represents the best possible form of government for all nations. This notion determined how the Western media perceived, interpreted and covered events in the 2014 Hong Kong protest.
The water level continues to rise in the Northern Aral Sea thanks to the Kokaral Dam and 13-kilometer dike at the southern edge of the recovering lake. As the northern part of the Aral Sea, once the world’s fourth-largest lake, continues to expand, the fishing industry is slowly returning as well.
Thanks to one of the worst manmade environmental disasters in recorded history, the Aral Sea is disappearing. But a small section of the sea in the north is reviving – and fish are returning.
