Indonesian President Joko Widodo (Jokowi) visited China twice in his first year of presidency alone. In contrast, he made his first state visit to the United States only in October 2015. However, although Sino–Indonesian relations are currently strengthening, economic, and geostrategic obstacles are likely to limit progress.
While the UK wined and dined the Chinese leader and struck deals to build nuclear power stations, the Americans were defying China’s aggressive expansionism in the South China Sea. The British strategy has angered the US and it could cause major fissures in the ‘special relationship’.
Will increasing economic interdependence between Japan and China increase or reduce the risk of conflict?
The conventional liberal wisdom is that economic interdependence between states enhances peaceful relations — as in the saying attributed to the early 19th century French economist Frederic Bastiat: ‘if goods don’t cross borders, armies will’. However, critics have pointed out that on the eve of World War II Germany and the United Kingdom were each other’s major trading partners.
Much has been made of Chinese president Xi Jinping’s visit to the UK. Amid all the fanfare, both countries have hailed it as the dawn of a “golden era” of relations. While the benefits seem clear to the UK, which seeks Chinese investment in a number of key infrastructure projects, what is golden for China about the visit?
Strong calls continue in Washington for the US Navy to increase its freedom of navigation (FON) activities in the South China Sea. This is despite apparent differences of view between the Pentagon and the White House about the wisdom of such action. The US has done little in 2015 to ease concerns about whether it knows what it is doing in the South China Sea. If anything, the rhetoric coming out of the Pentagon and the US Navy in particular, has become stronger.
After World War II and the end of Japanese military expansion, many countries fought for and won their independence in Asia. In 1949, China ended its internal disorder by establishing the People’s Republic of China. The Cold War divided Asia, and these divisions continued until the Soviet Union collapsed. As Asian countries embarked on their own development processes, they began to reshape the region. Economic integration based on market forces gradually extended to more and more economies.
Relations between Japan and China shifted significantly during the Koizumi years and this has created ongoing issues for the relationship between the two countries even today. Junichiro Koizumi served as Japanese prime minister from April 2001 to September 2006, — the third-longest-serving administration in post-war Japan. This was a time when China increased its global and regional presence and importance, a change recognised by the Japanese government. However, domestic politics in both countries came to hinder all opportunity for bilateral summit meetings.
History strongly suggests that the character of relations among major powers is a key determinant of stability. Europe convulsed in continuous warfare until France and Germany came to terms after World War II. Only then did Europe enjoy the prospects of integration leading to the European Union.
Increasingly reliant on each other for sustainable economic growth, the United States and China have fallen into a classic co-dependency trap, bristling at changes in the rules of engagement. The symptoms of this insidious pathology were on clear display during Chinese President Xi Jinping’s recent visit to America. They did not accomplish much, and the path ahead remains treacherous.
Russia has recently raised the priority given to East Asia in its foreign policy. This trend has further accelerated following the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis in 2014. How is the policy progressing and what is its impact on Russia’s relations with China and Japan? Three key events — Victory Day in China, the Eastern Economic Forum held in Vladivostok and the visit of Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev to the disputed Kuril Islands — can help uncover the answer.
