Euro Stabilizes as Oil Plummets


The euro rose from its lowest point over a decade against the dollar as oil prices continued to fall.

For the second day straight, the euro rose slightly against the U.S. dollar even as analysts await news from the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee about its plans to change its Federal funds rate target. Many economists expect the FOMC to remove the word “patient” from its statement, hinting to the market that a rate hike is set to come as early as June.

The Running of the Dollar Bulls and China Surprises


The US dollar’s bull advance, spurred by the divergence in the monetary policy, is continuing in earnest today after briefly consolidating yesterday.  The greenback traded at new multi-year highs against the euro, yen and Australian dollar.  But, it is stronger against all the major currencies and emerging market currencies.  The lone exceptions are the Hong Kong dollar and the Chinese yuan, which are flat. 

Employers Add Jobs at Fastest Rate in 17 Years


American companies gain more confidence in the economy by adding in 295,000 jobs in February. This marks the continued addition of jobs added above the 200,000 mark for 12 months.

Liberals carrying water for the Obama administration will tout this jobs report as a major success for the president, and it is typical for every president to get his due when the economy improves. But this development comes with some drawbacks. For one thing, these jobs did not boost wages, something that forces many Americans to work two or three jobs to make ends meet.

U.S. Hourly Earnings Below 1.5% on Higher Labor Supply


American wages are rising at a sharply slower pace despite a rise in job gains, indicating deflationary pressures could force the Federal Reserve to delay an interest rate hike.
In last week’s employment report for February, the Bureau of Labor Statistics noted that average hourly earnings for private nonfarm payrolls rose 3 cents, or an annualized increase of 1.45%. While still positive, the growth is a sharp decline from a year ago, when hourly earnings were rising by as much as 2.5%.

Draghi’s Comments Imply the ECB’s Plan is Already Working


There are two main forces at work as the week winds down. The first is the ECB’s confirmation of its asset purchases. This has renewed the rally in European peripheral bond markets and re-accelerated the euro’s slide. The second is the US monthly employment report, which follows a string of relatively soft economic data.

The Week in Review: Spending Falls, Mixed Employment Signals in U.S.


 

The average U.S. consumer is pulling back on spending as mixed signals warn of a volatile job market.

One government report indicated that Americans are earning more than they used to, but those income gains are not translating into larger spending. At the same time, less spending from manufacturers and other companies suggests an economic contraction may be on the horizon.

U.S. Indicators Show Sudden Positive Reversal


Two separate economic indicators show a sudden reversal, hinting that recent weakness in the U.S. might have been temporary.

Independent payroll services firm ADP announced on Wednesday morning that private employment rose by 212,000 jobs in February, with goods-producing jobs rising by 31,000 and construction industry jobs gaining 31,000. Manufacturing was the weakest sector, according to the report, but still saw 3,000 new jobs relative to January.

The biggest gains were found in the service sector, which saw employment rise by 181,000 jobs in February.

The Bank of Canada Meets and Disappointing PMI Data comes from Japan, UK, and the Eurozone


The US dollar is broadly firmer though the antipodean currencies continue to enjoy residual strength.  The Canadian dollar is not moving higher with them because of Bank of Canada meeting today.  

Canada, Switzerland See Stronger Growth


Economic growth in Canada and Switzerland beat expectations, but currency issues are causing analysts to urge caution for the future.

In the fourth quarter of 2014, Canada saw GDP rise by 2.4% annualized, according to a statement by Statistics Canada issued on Tuesday. The growth was above expectations although slightly lower than third quarter growth, which rose by 3.2%, according to a revised estimate. Economists had expected 2% economic growth.

A Surprise from Australia and Generally Better News From Europe Hold Investors’ Attention


The Reserve Bank of Australia defied expectations and left rates on hold earlier today. This has lifted the Australian dollar back to yesterday’s highs near $0.7845 were it stalled. The derivatives market had discounted nearly a 2/3 chance of a cut today. The RBA’s statement indicates the door is open to further easing, and most analysts will simply push out the expectation to April and May. We look for one cut in Q2 though some investment banks forecast two cuts.