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In an industry where anything could happen, surprises—often unwelcomed—are hard to come by. Oil is exactly such an industry at the moment. No one is sure where oil is heading, near-term forecasts range from $20 to $80 per barrel by the end of the year, and there are just too many wild cards on the scene.
Let us for a second imagine a world without nuclear energy. That is a tough one but let us try. No nuclear bombs, of course, no Chernobyl and Fukushima, no worries about Iran and North Korea. A wonderful world, maybe?
Probably not, because without nuclear energy we would have burned millions more tons of coal and billions more barrels of oil. This would have brought about climate change of such proportions that what we have today would have seemed negligible.
We are on the precipice of a food fight among 7 billion people, and potash will be right at the center of it. If you can add 200,000 people every day to the global population and account for a significant loss of farmland at the same time, you can begin to understand the dire food situation facing the planet. This is why potash is so important: It’s the fundamental element that everyone takes for granted, despite the fact that a projected 7.7 billion lives will depend upon it by 2020.
The impact of rising oil prices on North American light tight oil (LTO) production is said to be a “Catch 22”, the title of Joseph Heller’s popular 1961 novel set in WWII. The premise was you could get out of the army if you were crazy but you weren’t crazy to try to get out of the army. Therefore, this avenue to escape the war didn’t work for the book’s main character John Yossarian
With prices set to double by 2018, we've seen the bottom of the uranium market, and the negative sentiment that has followed this resource around despite strong fundamentals, is starting to change.
Billionaire investors sense it, and they're always the first to anticipate change and take advantage of the rally before it becomes a reality. The turning point is where all the money is made, and there are plenty of indications that the uranium recovery is already underway.
It wasn't so long ago that some of the more famous investor gurus were shrugging off gold as nothing more than shiny trinkets with no investment value. They were wrong. This safe haven is back, the recovery is clear, and there have been some very big changes of heart.
The biggest gold producers in the world have seen their share prices double this year. Not only are gold prices soaring, but producers are cutting costs and slimming down debt as they pave the way for gold to return to the top of the favored commodities list.
Total global oil production could decline for the next several years in a row as scarce new sources of supply come online. According to data from Rystad Energy, overall global oil output will fall this year as natural depletion overwhelms all new sources of supply. However, the deficit will only widen in the years ahead due to the dramatic scaling back in spending on new exploration and development.
Statoil says that global capex is set to fall for two years in a row, and is on track to fall for a third year in 2017 as more spending cuts are likely.
The energy sector was certainly a bargain in January, but no one really knows where oil will be around Christmas. While we may have already seen the bottom, stock prices are not the bargain they were. There are other plays. Think electric vehicles and even driverless cars. Find what's undervalued now and get in on some of the games that will dictate glorious future wealth.
The next OPEC meeting on 2 June will act as little more than a forum for continued altercations between Saudi Arabia and Iran. The 2 June 2016 OPEC meeting will be held amid a backdrop of oil prices near $50 per barrel, a sharp drop in Nigerian production due to sabotage, turmoil in Venezuela, Saudi Arabia operating with a new oil minister, and Iran aggressively pumping close to pre-sanction levels.
Ship tracking data from Bloomberg shows that 83 supertankers carrying around 166 million barrels of oil are headed to China, which has stockpiled an impressive 787,000 barrels a day in the first quarter of 2016—the highest stockpiling rate since 2014.
While the world was speculating about oil prices plunging to $20 and $10 per barrel, China was busy stockpiling its reserves.
The chart below shows an increase in imports as crude prices collapsed. Since the beginning of this year, China has imported a record quantity of oil.
On Monday, Saudi Arabia released a blueprint for the future, a plan for the Kingdom that could alter the course of its history. The "Vision for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia" could radically transform Saudi Aramco, the Saudi economy, and the country's social structure.
The unveiling of Tesla’s Model 3 electric car was no less than the lifting of the final curtain on a game-changing energy revolution. In addition, if we follow that revolution to its core, we arrive at lithium—our new gasoline for which the feeding frenzy has only just begun.