There’s no doubt about it, even the nay-sayers and doom-mongers are starting to admit that there are early signs of a recovery in the economic performance of the UK. Of course, economic performance lags behind the feelings of the market, which is much more about confidence and optimism than deep analysis, especially in the consumer markets that drive the cash flow.

There’s no doubt about it, even the nay-sayers and doom-mongers are starting to admit that there are early signs of a recovery in the economic performance of the UK. Of course, economic performance lags behind the feelings of the market, which is much more about confidence and optimism than deep analysis, especially in the consumer markets that drive the cash flow.

So, signs of recovery, good news all round and time to start investing? Not a bit of it; the recovery phase is usually considered the worst time to invest, prices are high and sufficient company profit is too low to allow decent dividends to attract the big funds. 

Actually, the recovery phase is one of the more dangerous parts of the business cycle. A lot of companies have been living off fat for the last five years or so; many put off the difficult decisions that have to be made in a recession for too long meaning that now, when they need to invest in promotion, new product development etc. they don’t have the reserves. A good hard look at the strength of the balance sheet is essential when investing during the recovery. 

On the other hand, the recovery is a very good time for spread betting, simply due to the amount of activity in the market and the fact that those trades are going to be driven more by optimism and confidence than hard numbers. For the spread better, reading the market perception rather than the actual underlying commercial performance, is more likely to give them their strategy. Everyone wants to be a part of the recovery and get their money working for them again, but many will still be cautious and go for the safer investments, giving the spread better a good idea of where to bet long and, by knowing the balance sheets in their sector, where to go short.

A spread betting provider will provide good analysis of what is happening in the market, allowing those looking for good bets to keep scouring the world news for events and influences that they can turn into intelligence on likely market response. After all, the UK recovery is mostly about the demand end; with so much manufactured overseas now, profitability is as much about sourcing as it is about having a customer. Take China, for example, their own people are now consuming more and more of their production capacity; where will UK companies go next for cheap supplies?

The post How To Invest In A Stock Market Recovery appeared first on Economy Watch.

October 2011 saw significant changes in the global economy.

October 2011 saw significant changes in the global economy.

In the U.S., the Occupy Wall Street movement was reaching its peak and was gradually inspiring similar movements across the world; while in Libya, former dictator Muammar Gaddafi had been caught and killed as he hid in a drain just outside his birthplace in Sirte.  Meanwhile, Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou stunned the world on October 31^st when he called for a national referendum on the new European Union debt deal – a plan which was subsequently cancelled just days later and led to Papandreou’s resignation.

EconomyWatch.com too had been in the process of change. It was during this period exactly seven months ago that we launched our new site design, which – besides the obvious improvements in its aesthetic value – was geared towards enhancing your user experience.

Our traffic figures saw a significant improvement. Over the month of October, we saw a 12.24 percent increase in visitors, with all subsequent months reporting higher average visitor numbers than prior to the redesign.

Design apart, the content on our site was also in the midst of change. Today, we regularly publish articles written by from some of the world’s top economists, such as Nouriel Roubini, Joseph Stiglitz and Jeffrey Sachs, along with our own commentaries and deeper investigative journalistic pieces as well as content from our partner sites.

On April 12^th 2012, we launched a reader survey to better understand who you are and what we can offer you to serve you better.

As a thank you for your inputs, and also as something of a heads up for where we are headed, here are some of the things we have learnt.

The Economy Watch Community

We already knew that you were an intelligent, cerebral and well-educated bunch. This survey has given us a bit more color on that hunch.

More than half of you have have MBAs, more than 60% have post-graduate degrees, and over 90% have college or university education. Is that some kind of record?

Our readers work in varied industries, including the financial services, management consulting and other professional services, the government and NGO sectors, energy, real estate, IT, trade, and academia.

But the most exciting part was the diverse range of nationalities among our readers. Apart from the usual strongholds of U.S., Europe and Asia, we were pleasantly surprised to have a significant portion of readers from Africa and Latin America, with countries such as Kenya, Malawi, Peru and Venezuela representing their continent.

Content

Regardless of nationality, you show common interest in the type of content on our site.

89%  percent you said that our leading economists’ articles were the most useful part of our site, followed by 73% citing the World Economy pages, 60% saying it is the investigative journalist lead stories, 59% stating it is the Economic Statistics database. And yes, we know that adds up to more than 100%, it was a multiple choice question!

The new content you want the most includes thought leader interviews (74%), academic articles (68%), and features on less covered topics such as smaller countries (49%).

Readers’ Contributions

And this is where you come in.

We were delighted to find that almost half of you (48%) want to contribute content to Economy Watch. You have offered to write articles (24%), help edit the country economy pages for the country you live in (18%), or contribute in other ways.

Thanks for your support! This is going to take us a while to implement on our technology platform, but please bear with us and we will make it happen.

In the meantime, if you have existing articles that you think are right for Economy Watch, you can email them to [email protected]

A Printed Version of Economy Watch

This one has surprised us – in a good way.

More than half of you – 52% to be precise – have said you would like to receive a printed version of Economy Watch, and that you would like this to be monthly and not weekly.

We have always thought a printed version of our content would be useful, but didn’t know what the interest would be like from our readers.

Now that we know so many of you would value this, we are in discussions with potential partners and hope to have something to offer you soon.

Economy Watch Events

Most of you have said that you would like to attend events.

The most popular formats that would appeal to you are a one-day conference (43%) or a two hour seminar from 5pm – 7pm, followed by cocktails (42%).

The countries or regions that interest you the most are China (65%), India (57%),  the US (55%), Europe (48%),  ASEAN (39%) and Brazil (39%).

The topics that interest you include Renewable Energy (50%), Commodities (49%) and other forms of Energy (44%).

You would most like to hear from economists (75%), column writers (73%), policy makers (55%), company CEOs or strategists (55%), central bankers (52%) and investment banking economists (42%).

We have already started work on planning our first few events. For logistical reasons they will be in our home town of Singapore. If all goes well, we will then look to our two top countries – India and the US.

And even though you might not be able to attend the event itself, we hope to share the videos and material afterwards, so you can still learn from what happened.

Research

Finally, about 15% of you said that you buy research, and half of that group said that you would appreciate the option of having the Economy Watch team help you with custom research requirements, in studies including country economy and industry studies.

We will be rolling out some options in this area as well.

We hope you have enjoyed reading these results as much as we have compiled them. They should give you a good sense of where we will be taking Economy Watch in the future. This is the start of a new chapter in our journey, a journey that we can’t take without you.

So we will end where we started, by saying ‘Thank you and keep the ideas coming!’

The post Thanks For Your Continued Support! appeared first on Economy Watch.

21 June 2011.

21 June 2011.

I first met Reza Behnam when he was the Managing Director of Yahoo South East Asia. Having worked with him closely on several projects there, we became friends and I have since tracked his progress as a VC, strategic consultant to governments and MNCs, and now as his online advertising marketplace, ADZ, launched at the Ad Trading Summit and Ad:Tech Singapore last week. I managed to catch up with Reza to talk about his vision for ADZ and the technology scene in Asia in general. As well as getting backing from the Singapore Government, Reza has also secured a star investor in the form of Eduardo Saverin, the Facebook co-Founder.

While Eduardo Saverin has been living in Singapore for the past 2 years, he remains low-key about his investments. He is also friend and mentor to Rachel Kum, Miss Singapore Universe in her cosmetics line start-up. You can watch the video here.

Note: Eduardo and Reza are not the only ones bullish on the internet. VC Ben Horowitz believes internet companies may actually be UNDER-valued.

Reza, good to be talking to you. What with both the development of ADZ and your consulting work for the Singapore Government, you have been a busy man!  First off, we hear that you have got a very interesting investor to both back you and sit on your board.

Yes, Eduardo (Saverin) has been very supportive of our vision, efforts, and team.  He also has a lot of great ideas about the interaction of social media and advertising.  He’s really passionate about helping entrepreneurs and we’re fortunate to have him on our board.

You have been doing a lot of work with the Media Development Authority (MDA) in Singapore, did they introduce you to Eduardo? What other support have they been providing you?

My previous experience as a business operator, investor, consultant, and now, entrepreneur, has allowed me to offer my expertise to some of my colleagues in the industry as an advisor.  So even though I’m really busy with ADZ, occasionally I partner with public and private sector companies, as a strategic advisor, to capitalize on business opportunities or to tackle challenges.  Occasionally, we provide white papers and industry point-of-views as well, which can be accessed through www.ddrxn.com.

I met Eduardo at an informal gathering of entrepreneurs in the digital space.  We just started chatting about the various things we were working on and the general trends in the industry.  It was only mid-conversation that I realized who Eduardo was.  We realized that we have a few common friends and colleagues in the advertising space and that’s how it all started.

The MDA has provided us with some really valuable support.  They have been housing our ADZ team in their “incubation” space and provided us with some financial support, in terms of a reimbursable loan, which encourages us to hire more engineering and product talent locally.

Do you see Eduardo and his social network experience as being strategic to the development of ADZ?

Absolutely!  He has a lot of great ideas about the interplay between advertising and social media. Besides being very knowledgeable and having great business savvy, he has exposure to many great opportunities and gaps in the ecosystem.  His status as the cofounder of the largest social network and one of the most successful companies in the space doesn’t hurt either.  The fact that he spends a lot of time in Singapore and is passionate about helping entrepreneurial teams achieve their vision, is also something that is very valuable to a start-up like ours.

Ok so let’s talk a little bit more about the product. I was at the excellent Ad Trading Summit a few days ago, and you introduced ADZ as an ‘Ad Marketplace’. What exactly does that mean?

Who are your main competitors?

This kind of business model and technology is pretty new to the Asia Pacific market, so it’s early days.  There are a number of strong players in the US who have emerged in the last couple of years.  Obviously Google is paying a lot of attention to this space and is well-positioned with its many acquisitions and its own capabilities.  However, there will always be room to innovate for new players.  The fact that there’s a strong player is good news because it means that there will be significant attention and education in the marketplace and it raises the “liquidity” in the space.

7 Reasons for Low Online Ad Spent in Asia

Why are so little of advertiser budgets in Asia spent on online display advertising (ie banner ads and the like), when Asians spend so much of their time online?

This is a very good question.  I believe there are several explanations for it:

1. The main differentiation between digital and offline advertising, of course, is its ability to be accountable and measurable in great detail.  However, this advantage of digital media can also make it very complicated and complex to administer.  In other words, because there’s so much accountability and customization, there’s a lot of scrutiny and detailed planning that often goes into a digital media buy.

2. Digital advertising has various “flavors”.   Search, display, mobile, social, video, performance, branding, email, and SMS are some of the modalities that one can use.  While each mode has its strengths, it’s often the combination of these modes that is most effective.   This is a fairly complex space which we, as an industry, need to make simpler to administer.

3. Historically, most of the innovation in terms of digital marketing has been driven out of the US and the UK.  There has been more experimentation, funding, and support for innovation since the early days of the web in places like the US. Asia is now waking up to the opportunity.   

4. The tolerance and acceptance of risk is probably lower in some of the developing Asian markets than in markets where competition is tighter.  In markets with fierce competition, companies try to maximize opportunities to get a leg up on their competition.  They do this by taking risk on new, innovative approaches in various areas including marketing.  Digital advertising and its various flavors are no exception.

5. Offline media is still growing, albeit at a much slower pace than online, in parts of Asia.  So, if a CMO or an agency is experienced with offline media, they can still find refuge in what they know best.

6. Asia is not one homogeneous continent. In fact, it’s very diverse. We have many countries with many local languages, cultures, traditions, government structures, and advertising ecosystems. A market like Vietnam is very different than a market like Singapore or Hong Kong. As such, many markets offer some scale but not enough to sustain certain business models. Companies and regional advertisers who find a way to benefit from Asia’s overall scale while taking into account the differences between countries will be in good position.

7. Digital marketing talent is not always easy to find in certain parts of Asia.

These factors start to explain why Asia is still trying to catch up on the digital side.   Too often “digital marketing” is discussed as an “add on” or an “after thought” to a major marketing plan.  With the ubiquity and pervasiveness of digital channels we need to elevate the discussion to focus on “marketing in a digital age” rather than talking about “digital marketing” in isolation.

Will ADZ help to correct this imbalance?

We certainly hope we can do our part in making it easier to buy and sell media.

Most people know that an advertiser uses an agency to place ads on websites that users then see and hopefully interact with. Most people outside our industry would not know what networks, exchanges, data providers and the rest of it are. In fact, a layman might look at this kind of industry chart and say this is ridiculous it will surely all get consolidated into singular, large platforms, what do you say?

I agree!   You bring up an interesting point. [quote] In the US, where the “display” market is approximately US$10B, there are a lot of “point solution” companies which focus on solving one part of the challenge. As a result, the display ecosystem in the US is comprised of many point solutions organized in a chain-like fashion.  Over time, there will be consolidation of these point solutions.  [/quote]We have already been witness to Google’s acquisition of Admob, Invite Media and Admeld.  More of this is likely to happen.  In Asia, however, we have the luxury of learning from more developed markets and not replicating everything that happened in the exact same order.  In other words, there are opportunities to “leap frog”.  That’s exactly why we talk about ADZ as a marketplace and not as an “exchange” or merely a “Demand-Side Platform”.  We are trying to provide a platform which provides most of the critical functions in the buying and selling of media.

Are you hoping that a Google will come in and snap you up, as they did AdMeld this week, or do you plan to ride the current internet IPO wave/ bubble?

We need to be focused on building value for our buyers, sellers, and partners.  We have a long-term view about building scalable product and processes.  If we can do this, opportunities for exit will always present themselves and then it’ll be up to us to decide whether an exit would be in the best interest of the company and its clients, or not.  We’re in this for the long-term and we’ll plan our products and services for the future but try to “live” in the moment and create the best results for our clients and partners.

Reza, it has been great to catch up with you as always, we shall be watching the progress of ADZ with a great deal of interest.

Visit ADZ’s homepage to find out more.

Keith Timimi

EconomyWatch.com

The post Facebook Co-Founder Eduardo Saverin Bets Big on Asian Internet appeared first on Economy Watch.

9 June 2011.

The first results are in, and they will not be great news for everyone. Simply put, it is not a good time to be an American.

Last week we launched our crowdsourcing economic indicators experiment, the world’s first real-time Consumer Confidence Index from your friendly local global economists at EconomyWatch.com.

As the data fills out, we start to get a sense of what people around the world are feeling.

9 June 2011.

The first results are in, and they will not be great news for everyone. Simply put, it is not a good time to be an American.

Last week we launched our crowdsourcing economic indicators experiment, the world’s first real-time Consumer Confidence Index from your friendly local global economists at EconomyWatch.com.

As the data fills out, we start to get a sense of what people around the world are feeling.

So far we have learnt that Kazakhstani’s are feeling really good about life, although admittedly we have only heard from two of you so far. So come on, residents of Astana and the rest of that vast and beautiful country – are you all feeling great about the Kazakhstan Economy too?

Check out the real-time Consumer Confidence Index on EconomyWatch

We have also learnt that Italians are the most pessimistic about the future, all 3 of you feeling decidedly down, followed closely by 10 Brits.

We have more statistically significant reponses from three countries. 34 Indians and 30 Singaporeans have confirmed that those countries are optimistic, pushing Asia/Pacific to the top of the continental rankings.

However we have been most closely tracking responses from what is still the world’s largest and most important economy, the United States.

48 Americans have given the US a rating of 562 (out of 1,000), broadly meaning that they expect the economy to stay the same. This is down from a confident 756 Mid May, although we should point out the Mid May figures were not statistically significant and so are probably skewed.

In fact, responses in the last week have been on average below 500, meaning that most people in the US now believe things will get worse.

Respondents are particularly worried about Employment Conditions and Household Income, although they feel slightly better about Business Conditions and the overall Economy.

These figures, however, have been dropping across the board.

Judge for yourself: US Consumer Confidence Index

Even though there is a sense of opportunity then, it doesn’t seem to be flowing to the middle classes in the form of wages and jobs, or so the perception goes. Is there any truth to this?

The Daily Mail provided confirmation of this bleak picture.

There were 54,000 jobs created in May, but that was only one quarter of the approx 200k jobs that were created monthly in the preceding three months,  and well short of what ‘Economists’ had been predicting: overall payrolls to rise 150,000 and private hiring to increase 175,000.

Got it? We’re all right Jack – Wall Street that is – but you can forget about jobs.

Well what do you expect if you put a tax-dodging crookmeister like GE’s Jeffrey Immelt in charge of jobs creation. Not only did these shmucks pay ZERO tax on $5.1 billion US revenues, they actually claimed a tax benefit of $3.2 billion.

Related: GE’s $14.2 Billion Legal Tax Avoidance Further Sign of US Decay

Instead of making an example of this kind of modern day reverse Robin Hood, the White House put him in charge of the President’s Council on Jobs and Effectiveness.

So don’t expect any policies designed to actually boost employment any time soon, although more policies on effectiveness (ie even less corporate tax and even more benefits) are surely in the making.

The Daily Mail went on to say that

They never said what the government efforts to power up a job-creating recovery were, beyond the Robber Barons being put in charge of creating jobs.

‘Overall, this is horrible,’ said Ian Shepherdson, U.S. economist for High Frequency economics. He then went on to say it was likely a short-term dip – which we suspect means, once again, short-term for Wall St and not the unemployed.

To add insult to injury, it turns out that over 20,000 of the jobs created were at McDonalds. More than half of new jobs are McJobs.

In fact, it gets worse.

Consumers believe the chances of bringing home more money one year from now are at their lowest in 25 years, according to analysis of survey data by Goldman Sachs.

Goldman’s made this extraordinary statement after studying the University of Michigan and Thomson Reuters poll, which asks consumers whether they believe their family income will rise more than inflation in the next 12 months [note: the EconomyWatch.com poll asks about views for the next 6 months.]

Wage pessimism is at its lowest in more than two decades as real hourly wages have dropped 2.1 percent on an annualized basis over the past six months, a rate of decline not seen in 20 years.

This is extraordinary. Wages are dropping more than they did in the Great Financial Crisis. Confidence is less than it was in the Great Financial Crisis.

But if you really want to see how the system is focused on Wall St and corporates, while eating its young, look at housing.

The Wall Street Journal reported that house prices have already fallen more than during the Great Depression. 

By their calculations, prices are now down 33% from their 2006 peak, compared with the 31% decline during the Depression.[/quote]

The Independent agreed:

The remarkable thing about this downturn is that even though prices have fallen by more than in the Great Depression, the bottom has yet to be reached. We think that prices will fall by at least a further 3% this year, and perhaps even further next year.

Now Zillow is forecasting that U.S. home values are poised to drop by more than $1.7 trillion this year.

In a real worst-case scenario, how far could housing decline? Dean Baker argues that

In March of this year, Gary Shilling predicted that housing would decline another 20%, and wouldn’t recover for 4-5 years.

Government economic policy that does nothing meaningful to tackle unemployment and the failure to prosecute mortgage fraud are largely responsible for the slump in housing.

Until those policies are reversed, housing could keep declining for a long time.

WashingtonBlog.com puts it very aptly.

(1) Tried to artificially prop up housing prices;

or

(2) Created sustainable jobs, broken up the big banks so that they stop driving our economy into a ditch, and restored honesty and trustworthiness to the economy and the financial system. All this would have meant that the economy would recover, and people would have enough money to afford to buy a new house. (See this).

The government opted to try to prop up prices.

Indeed, as I have repeatedly pointed out, the government’s entire strategy has been to try to artificially prop up the prices of all types of assets.

The big talk in Washington these days is “helping homeowners”. Unfortunately, what passes for help to homeowners in the capitol might look more like handing out money to banks anywhere else.

So, who benefits from “helping homeowners” in this story? Naturally the big beneficiaries are the banks. If the government pays for a mortgage modification where the homeowner is still paying more for the mortgage than they would for rent, then the bank gets a big gift from the government, but the homeowner is still coming out behind.

There are simple, low-cost ways to help homeowners who were victims of the housing bubble and lending sharks…. But this would mean hurting the banks rather than giving them taxpayer dollars, and we still don’t talk about hurting banks in Washington DC.

The Treasury Dept.’s mortgage relief program isn’t just failing, it’s actively funneling money from homeowners to bankers, and Treasury likes it that way.

[/quote]When Ronald Reagan swept into power, he put in place a program to free corporate interests to gouge the state, while progressively rolling back welfare programs and blaming the poor for deficits.

That program has been so successful that it has captured successive generations of Republican and Democrat administrations.

Until some brave and resourceful leader comes up with a real program of hope and change, it will remain bad news to be American.

Unless you are a large American corporation or bank, of course. In that case, you have never had it so good.

Keith Timimi

EconomyWatch.com

The post Not a Good Time to Be an American appeared first on Economy Watch.

30 May 2011.

I remember the moment vividly.

It was the 26th September, 2008. Hank Paulson, then US Treasury Secretary, had got down on one knee to Nancy Pelosi, then Speaker of the House, and begged her to support his Bailout of the Too-Big-To-Fail Banks. 

I was sitting in a cafe with one of my business partners at Singapore Digital Agency Qais Consulting, the formidable and intuitive Tripti Lochan.

30 May 2011.

I remember the moment vividly.

It was the 26th September, 2008. Hank Paulson, then US Treasury Secretary, had got down on one knee to Nancy Pelosi, then Speaker of the House, and begged her to support his Bailout of the Too-Big-To-Fail Banks. 

I was sitting in a cafe with one of my business partners at Singapore Digital Agency Qais Consulting, the formidable and intuitive Tripti Lochan.

As the Subprime Crisis had rumbled on through the summer in the US, Asia just seemed to continue on the up-and-up. The talk was of the ‘de-coupling’ of the Asian and Western economies (a quaint term that you don’t hear much these days.)

But when Hank got down on one knee, everything seemed to change in Asia. We already knew that, almost as one, our clients’ confidence would tumble. Projects would be put on hold, downsized or cancelled.

As the ever eloquent former President Bush said,

By the 28th September, the Bailout Bill had failed in its first reading in the House, and the stock market crumbled.

This was confirmation for us of what we already knew; consumer and business confidence around the world would plummet, and the global economy was going to take its worst hit for decades.

It was a matter of business survival for us to understand just how bad it would be, but the data was painfully slow in coming.

Go to the Global Real-Time Consumer Confidence Index

What were current consumer confidence readings? It would take weeks or months to find out, and even then only selected countries would be reported on.

I kept asking myself, what is the point of having a forward indicator when it takes so long to get the data?

Remember that consumer confidence is not drawn from government data that needs to be tallied in highly secure data rooms.

It is just an aggregation of our views.

If you had charted consumer confidence on a daily basis in September 2008, you would have seen it fall off the cliff, and not start tentatively recovering until the ‘green shoots’ talk sometime in March or April 2009. It would have continued to stay in negative or borderline territory for most of 2009.

It was not until July 2009 that the IMF reported the first upgrade in its predictions for the global economy. Take a look at that report and the GDP charts, and you will see world economy hitting rock bottom at the end of 2008 and early 2009, before flatlining for the rest of the year.

I am convinced that if we had been able to monitor consumer confidence on a daily basis, we would have been able to predict exactly what happened to the world economy during that pivotal time.

The idea stayed in the back of my mind as we battled to keep EconomyWatch.com and Qais Consulting afloat during seas that were even choppier than the Dot Com Bust (which is saying something for internet companies).

During the last year, we got some of the best brains we had in both companies and slowly started to build exactly what we had dreamed of before; a tool for tracking the perceptions of citizens around the world, of employment, business and economic conditions.

We index that data and put into a rolling 30 day dataset, to give a view of current perceptions vs those a month ago, and vs the average for the year. 

Go to the Global Real-Time Consumer Confidence Index

Before proceeding, I need to issue a big fat disclaimer. This tool is still in Beta. There might be some errors – if you do find any please please let us know so we can fix them. You may have ideas on how to improve this tool – and if so, once again do let us know. Contact details follow at the end of the article.

Most importantly, I should let you know that the quality of the results are only as good as the number of responses we get. So the more you and people like you use it, the more accurate the data will be.

So how does it work?

When you first hit the tool, you will see a set of 9 simple questions about the economy. For example, the first question asks you if employment conditions have improved:

Each time you answer a question, you will get a little nugget of info – for example, 20% of people think employment conditions are unchanged right now – and then the next question will appear.

Within 20 seconds or so, you will be able to complete the survey. The app will then IP-detect where you are based. You can change the location if needs be, and then you click ‘Done’.

Thats it! Not too painful right?

Now you will get to have fun playing with the results. First off, you will see the Worldwide Consumer Confidence Index:

This is how it looked immediately before this article was published.

You can see that global confidence is at 650 on a scale of 0 – 1000, and that makes the world a pretty optimistic place right now [Ed: see Great Financial Crisis? What Great Financial Crisis? The World Economy in 2011]. The outlook has improved 9.7% in the last month, although it is slightly off from the high of 681 on the 14th May.

The heat map shows us the most and least confident countries, with those most countries blanked out as we don’t have responses from them yet.

Below that we have list of regions and countries with their real-time data:

You can see at the top that Asia/ Pacific is the most optimisic region, with an index score of 697, while Europe is in neutral territory at 547.

You can then see the country results. Data from countries with only a handful of responses may not be that indicative, but as more people respond, this data will get more accurate. We can already see that India has strong and growing optimism, as does Singapore, whereas the US is in more neutral territory, although it has been improving recently.

You can click into a country and see that data up close.

This will give you the overall trend, but our older survey results did not capture regions very well, so we will need a bit more time to refine the drilldown view.

We have taken a small step, and there is still a lot to do, but we think that with your support this tool could become really useful.

Why wait so long for reports in a real-time, always on world? And why wait for the opinions of ‘experts’ when we can see the data ourselves and draw our own conclusions?

Well, what are you wating for? Give it a whirl!

 [quote]

The Real-Time Consumer Confidence Index

Bugs to fix? Suggestions to add?

You can feed back in a number of ways:

By email to [email protected]

In the comments section at the bottom of the page on http://www.economywatch.com/consumer-confidence-index

On our Facebook Page: http://www.facebook.com/EconomyWatch

By tweeting @economywatch

In our LinkedIn Discussion Group

Keith Timimi

EconomyWatch.com

The post Crowdsourcing the Future: Introducing Global Real-Time Consumer Confidence Tracking appeared first on Economy Watch.

16 May 2011.

Forty one years ago, I was born in a dusty hospital in Basra, southern Iraq.

Thirty two years ago, as a nine year old boy, I looked through the back window of a taxi cab, thinking, ‘I may never see these streets that I love again.’ Like millions of others, as Saddam ‘arrived’ we left, and true enough I haven’t been back since. Bye bye Basra.

Now here I sit, all these years later, on the other side of the world, with Saddam dead and buried close to five years already.

16 May 2011.

Forty one years ago, I was born in a dusty hospital in Basra, southern Iraq.

Thirty two years ago, as a nine year old boy, I looked through the back window of a taxi cab, thinking, ‘I may never see these streets that I love again.’ Like millions of others, as Saddam ‘arrived’ we left, and true enough I haven’t been back since. Bye bye Basra.

Now here I sit, all these years later, on the other side of the world, with Saddam dead and buried close to five years already.

And yet, that old specter of fear still haunts me. I still worry. Should I really write this article? Might it come back to haunt me or – worst still – my family one day?

Unless you have lived under a repressive regime, it is very hard to understand the profound psychological impact it has. It is something that never truly leaves you.

It’s not even about voicing opposition to the regime.

Sometimes just for fun, people could be randomly taken away, beaten, electrocuted, burned, humiliated, dismembered and killed – accused of something, or accused of nothing at all.

They might disappear for years, or their family might be told to come and collect the body – and pay for the bullets used to execute them.

Whole countries have been turned into prisons in which no-one is safe and no-one can be trusted. As many as one third of Iraqis at some time or other provided information about friends, families or colleagues to the authorities. To a lesser or greater extent this has happened in most of the Middle East.

That is why I am amazed to see hundreds of thousands of Arabs, Kurds, Berbers and a multitude of other races decide that they will stand up to the Mafiosi that have come to control every aspect of their lives.

That is why I am amazed to read stories like that of Adnan; being tortured by the Syrian authorities didn’t induce fear, it induced anger, and that anger is bringing even more people out to the streets (’This Regime is Brutal but also Stupid’).

The most remarkable thing is not that these kids are risking their lives, standing up to bullets and tanks.

As incredible as that is, something even more profound happened first.

The citizens of the Middle East escaped from the mental ghetto that they have been consigned to, that they might have unwittingly consigned themselves to. They overcame fear and despair, and had developed the real audacity of hope. (The real thing is even better than the slogan, Mr President.

That is the true and fundamental change that has happened in the Middle East.

The mentality has changed. And as that persists through all the thuggery thrown at it, so the Arab world will never be the same again.

That is why I fundamentally disagree with Dr George Friedman, the CEO of Stratfor.com and an analyst that I admire and have learnt a great deal from.

In his Agenda on the Middle East of the 29 April 2011, George explains that geo-politically, nothing has really changed (with my emphasis):

But again I want to emphasize that, and this really makes my view somewhat different from those of many other people, is that we’ve had a lot of sound and fury. I’m not saying it signifies nothing, but I’m saying it is less significant than some have wanted to say. People have talked about how an enormous democratic revolution is sweeping the region. Certainly there have been demonstrations. Demonstrations don’t constitute revolutions. Revolutions don’t always constitute democracy and so on. So when you take a look at what’s happened in the region, sometimes there’s less there than meets the eye.[/quote]

George, I agree with you that there is no ‘enormous democratic revolution’ sweeping the revolution. Media outlets have to hype things up to make money. I get that.

But I think you have missed the real action.

The deeper truth is that people’s hearts and minds have changed.

If you remember the rhetoric that accompanied the start of the most recent Gulf War (more accurately described, I think, as the Invasion of Iraq), you will also remember that we heard lots of talk about winning hearts and minds.

Which seems pretty idiotic now, really. Tanks, bombs and bullets have never ‘won’ hearts and minds, not for dictators and not for Americans. They can cow them, but certainly not inspire them.

A desire for a better life, a conviction in the right to experience freedom (whatever that might mean in practical reality), a belief that these changes will lead to better opportunity and more jobs – that is what inspires people.

That change needs to happen internally first. People need to believe that they do have a say.

Then they need to stand up and face down the guns.

Once that happens, society changes forever.

Whether we get western style democracy or not is surely the wrong frame for this debate. Whether the citizens of these countries are able to re-establish their rights to participate in society is.

George goes on to point out the increasing role that Iran is playing, something we well understand ( we have pointed out before that Iran plans to grow from the world’s 18^th largest to the 12^th largest, and that theoretically should be part of the G20).

He also points out that these regimes are generally based around a strong military, and regime change requires military movement.

This is all well and good, but it trivializes the role of the populace themselves.

Well, I guess we don’t really need to take the ‘Arab Street’ seriously, do we? I mean the Middle Classes of the west have a say, but the ‘Arab Street’ are just a rabble, right?

As my old friend Lee Bryant pointed out in his excellent article A Wake Up Call for Despots, that only lasts as long people let it be so. Lee quotes David Hume saying

Lee feels social media has enabled a tipping point that allow the many to experience their power, first through Wikileaks helping to crystalise sentiment by bringing transparency to shady geo-political dealings, and then as an organizing medium:

Othman Laraki of Twitter has even codified this tipping point in The Economics of Dissent:

Dr Friedman, you may be right to say that change at a geo-political level has not yet occurred.

But ‘real’ change has. It might take two months or two generations, but the relationship between rulers and ruled in the Middle East has changed forever, and outside forces will not just be influencing this change – they will be influenced by it too.

Economic Backdrop

The Middle East is:

• Poor (when you exclude Israel and some of the Gulf States). For example 2010 GDP Per Capita in Yemen was $1,282, $2,564 in Iraq, $2,789 in Egypt and $2,877 in Syria. (Source: GDP Per Capita (US Dollar) Statistics, 2010)
• Young and rapidly growing with majority of the population made up of males in their mid to late twenties. For example, 31% of Egypt’s population is under 14, and 40% is under 21. (Source: Egypt’s Economic Structure)
• Unemployed. For example, 20% of Syrians are believed to be unemployed (Source: Syria’s Economic Structure)
• Overly dependent on oil. For example, oil is 95% of Libya’s export earnings and 80% of government revenue. (Source: The Libyan Economy)
• Corrupt. For example, Iraq is the fourth most corrupt country on earth, with a corruption perceptions rank of 1.5, Libya and Yemen come in at 2.2, Syria at 2.5, Egypt at 3.1 and Tunisia 4.3. (Source: Corruption Perceptions Index)

You can get full economic indicator statistics for the Middle East on EconomyWatch.com’s Economic Statistics Database, and get our country analyses in the Middle East Economy section.

 Keith Timimi

EconomyWatch.com

The post Sorry Dr Friedman, You Are Wrong – the Middle East Has Fundamentally Changed appeared first on Economy Watch.

A competitive and productive economy, the US Economy is apparently largest in the world. It is a capitalist economy, which registered a 2.1% GDP growth rate in the 2nd quarter of 2008. Services form the major sectors of the US Economy.

A competitive and productive economy, the US Economy is apparently largest in the world. It is a capitalist economy, which registered a 2.1% GDP growth rate in the 2nd quarter of 2008. Services form the major sectors of the US Economy.

Services sector is the primary economic sector of USA. It contributes nearly 67.8% towards the GDP of the country. Information, retail, scientific, technical and professional services form the major parts of this sector. Out of all the services, wholesale and retail trade comes up as the leading business areas. If net income is taken into consideration, then finance and insurance services feature as the top business option.

In 2007, the service sector contributed almost 78.5% and the industrial sector contributed 20.5% towards USA’s GDP. The country generates a yearly industrial output of about $2696880 million (2006 data). Petroleum, chemicals, fertilizers, electronic goods are some of the chief industries of this sector. In fact, mining is also a chief industry of the US Economy. In 2007, the production or manufacturing sector grew at a rate of 0.3% during March. However, it recorded a positive growth rate during the later part of the year.

Though agriculture is a major industry, yet its contribution is only 1% towards the GDP.

Different sectors of the US Economy are listed below:

• Mining
• Finance and Insurance
• Real Estate, rental and leasing
• Manufacturing
• Wholesale Trade
• Retail Trade
• Transportation
• Information
• Management of companies & enterprises
• Utilities
• Construction
• Administrative, support, waste management & remediation service
• Educational services
• Health care & social assistance
• Arts, entertainment, & recreation
• Accommodation & food services
• Other services (except public administration)
• Professional, scientific, & technical services

The recent global financial crisis has hit the real estate and financial sector of the country. Fall of the sub-prime market has given a big blow to the services sector. The country is currently going through a period of economic recession but is expected to recover soon from this situation.

The post Different Sectors of the US Economy appeared first on Economy Watch.

Forecasting what will happen with the economy of the Palestinian Territories of the West Bank and Gaza is amongst the most demanding challenges than an economist can face.

It may in fact be easier for geopolitical and military analyst to make.

That is because the economic fortunes of Palestine depend first and foremost on whether a Palestinian state is actually created, under the auspices of the now stalled ‘Two State’ peace process with Israel, and secondly on what the final border, security and logistics arrangements that state will be permitted to have.

Forecasting what will happen with the economy of the Palestinian Territories of the West Bank and Gaza is amongst the most demanding challenges than an economist can face.

It may in fact be easier for geopolitical and military analyst to make.

That is because the economic fortunes of Palestine depend first and foremost on whether a Palestinian state is actually created, under the auspices of the now stalled ‘Two State’ peace process with Israel, and secondly on what the final border, security and logistics arrangements that state will be permitted to have.

The final status discussions with Israel have been a long drawn out affair dogged by mutual suspicion, assassination, military actions and the untimely deaths of leaders.

While the Quartet of the UN, EU Russia and America, through their special envoy former British Prime Minister Tony Blair, was supposed to be prodding both parties into dialogue, it has seemed in recent times intractable.

Cynics would argue that the status quo favoured those in power. The Israelis had secured their borders and could act (mostly) with impunity, as long as the US continued to fund them militarily. The Fatah group in power in the West Bank seem to be enriching themselves with what little money flows into the country, and Hamas have control of Gaza.

Which leaves the Palestinian population with a continued life of violence and discrimination, lack of facilities and very little economic prospects.

The most likely forecast, therefore, is for continued stagnation.

There might be a glimmer of hope for a better life from an unlikely source; the Arab world. Change is sweeping the Middle East, and sooner or later the arabs will have a greater say in their own affairs.

Once that happens, Arab powers, which have by-and-large tacitly supported Israeli policies in return for financial and military aid from the US, while publicly railing against Israel, will no longer be able to play this double again.

If arabs start demanding real change, then Israeli calculus on security may start to change. Helping to create a viable Palestinian state with real economic prospects for its citizens may then become the less risky proposition.

Whether that happens is extremely difficult to predict in this transitionary moment in history.

There is not much accurate data available on the Palestinian economy.

In 2008, the UN estimated that is GDP stood at $6.159 bllion, growing at a 2% annual rate, and with a GDP Per Capita of $1,485.3, making its 4.1 million inhabitants amongst the poorest in the world.

Those figures are unlikely to change significantly in the current scenario.

However, if a state is established, or the economy opened up by some other means, then there could be a period of significant economic growth.

The post Palestine (Palestinian Territories) Economic Forecast appeared first on Economy Watch.

Although some progress has been made, Syria is still a relatively under-developed economy with only modest growth prospects. Unlike its neighbours it has considerable arable land – in fact one third of the land area is farmed – and hence has a larger agricultural sector.

Efforts to reform and open up the national socialist economy have been limited. There is now some banking and stock market activity, but many economic sectors are still strictly controlled.

Although some progress has been made, Syria is still a relatively under-developed economy with only modest growth prospects. Unlike its neighbours it has considerable arable land – in fact one third of the land area is farmed – and hence has a larger agricultural sector.

Efforts to reform and open up the national socialist economy have been limited. There is now some banking and stock market activity, but many economic sectors are still strictly controlled.

Again, unlike some of its neighbours, Syria does not have a lot of oil. It has proven reserves of 2.5 billion barrels, produces around 365,000 barrels a day, and exports around 150,00 barrels. Those numbers have been gradually declining, so the energy sector is not going to support any strengthening in economic growth.

Syria GDP Forecast

Syria is the 65th largest economy in the world. In 2010, GDP (PPP) for Syria was US$ 105.324 Billion.

The Syrian economy is expected to continue to grow from its somewhat low base, to reach US$112.56 billion in 2011, and ultimately US$149.075 billion by 2015.

In 2010 it grew 4.997%, the 59th fastest growing country in the world.

This is up from 3.99%, and the rate of grow is expected to increase in coming years, to 5.496% in 2011, and to then average between 5.5% and 5.7% until 2015.

Syria is a relatively poor country, with a GDP Per Capita (PPP) of US$5,107.93 in 2010. This makes it the 111th in world personal income rankings.

In 2009, GDP Per Capita was US$4,938.85 GDP Per Capita (PPP) representing 3.42% growth.

That figure is forecasted to grow to US$5,328.30 in 2011, or 4.31%, and to reach US$6,405.60 by 2015.

Per Capita GDP growth is less than overall economic growth, suggesting both that the population is growing fast and that economic growth in unevenly spread.

Syria Unemployment Forecast

The Syrian population stood at 20.62 million in 2010.

Syria is a young country with a high birth rate. It is growing at approximately 2.45% a year, and is forecast to reach 21.13 million in 2011 and 23.273 million by 2015.

In 2009, its labor force was estimated at 5.772 million. We estimate that figure was 6 million 2010, and will reach 6.243 million in 2011 and 6.493 million by 2013.

The Syrian economy is fairly under-developed, with a significant portion of the population relying on agriculture: some 19.2% are agrarian, 14.% are in industry, and 66.3% are in services.

The unemployment rate was estimated to be between 10% and 11% in 2010, and is expected to rise to the 11% – 12% range between 2011 and 2015.

Syria Inflation Rate Forecast

Average Syrian inflation in 2010 was 5.037%, and it is expected to stay in the 5% – 6% range between 2011 and 2015.

Syria Current Account Balance Forecast

The Current Account Balance for Syria in 2010 is US$-2.341 Billion.

Syria is expected to maintain a current account deficit going forward, declining to -US$2.252 in 2011, fluctuating somewhat from, there, before ultimately declining to -US$1.983 billion in 2015.

The post Syria Economic Forecast appeared first on Economy Watch.

Forecasting Libya’s economy has in past years been fairly straightforward, since its economy is dominated by oil. Oil contributes 95% of export revenues, 25% of GDP, and 80% of government income.

The 2011 Libyan uprising and resulting civil war have changed things significantly, however.

Forecasting Libya’s economy has in past years been fairly straightforward, since its economy is dominated by oil. Oil contributes 95% of export revenues, 25% of GDP, and 80% of government income.

The 2011 Libyan uprising and resulting civil war have changed things significantly, however.

The first month of fighting led to two thirds of oil production being lost. Libya is the 17th largest oil exporter in the world, and the 3rd largest producer in Africa. Even after fighting ends, it could take years to restore full production, as facilities have been bombed and foreign oil industry workers have mostly fled the coutnry.

Libya exports about 1.9% of world needs, or around 1.6 million barrels per day, but that dropped to 500,000 barrels during this period. 85% of exports go to Europe, and Libya is Italy’s largest oil provider, and also supplies 10% of its gas through the Greenstream pipeline.

The ruthless way in which Gaddafi has cracked down on protesters with his airfore, tanks and foreign mercenaries has also led to tight sanctions being imposed on the country, which will further dampen economic growth.

Libya GDP Forecast

Libya’s GDP (on a Purchasing Power Parity basis) was US$96.099 billion in 2010, making Libya the 69th largest economy in the world.

GDP growth hit 10.637% in 2010 following a 2.3% contraction in 2009, and the pre-uprising forecast had been for 6% – 8% growth over the next five years.

It is now more likely that there will be an economic contraction this year, before the country experiences a rebound and possibly faster growth later in the five year period.

Libya Unemployment Forecast

Libya had a population of 6.459 million in 2010, expected to rise at a 2% rate to 6.587 million in 2011 and 7.126 million in 2015.

It is one of the richest countries in Africa, with a GDP per capita of US$14,878.24 in 2010.

However most of this wealth does not reach the general population, and this was one of the key causes of the uprising, together with a reaction to the repressive policies of the regime.

The unemployment rate has been as high as 30% in recent years. With the current fighting closing down many industries, this figure is likely to be effectively above 50% in 2011, but reconstruction efforts after the fighting ends means that it could also substantially drop.

The outlook is very uncertain for unemployment, as it is for the Libyan economy in general.

Libya Inflation Rate Forecast

Libyan inflation hit 4.5% in 2010, and with sanctions now in effect there is likely to be a scarcity of key items, meaning that inflation is likely to go into double digits.

Libya Current Account Balance Forecast

Libya enjoys a current account surplus of US$15.688 billion in 2010 thanks to oil exports. The pre-crisis forecast was for this to rise continously, to $31.13 billion by 2015.

Current conditions mean this figure could drop in the short term before rising again once oil output is restored.

The post Libya Economic Forecast appeared first on Economy Watch.