Singapore’s MAS Chief warns of risks facing the global economy
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The chief of the central bank of Singapore, Ravi Menon, has said that the global economy is facing four key issues, including a downturn expected to happen in 2023. According to the official, policymakers will be in a prolonged period of fighting against the ongoing economic turmoil.
Singapore MAS chief warns of risks affecting the global economy
The Singapore MAS Chief said that the global economy was facing high inflation. The lagging effects of the fiscal and monetary stimulus after the pandemic and the growing demand after economies reopened have increased the general inflation pressures.
The supply chains were also being disrupted by the pandemic’s effects and the ongoing Ukraine invasion by Russia. These events have raised food, energy, and commodity prices.
The growing inflation levels have also increased the need for tightening the monetary policy by central banks at a level that has not been seen over the past four decades. The economic growth is now expected to slow down and bring the aggregate demand and supply back to balanced levels.
The latest Consensus Forecasts have seen the GDP growth of the US and Eurozone for 2023 reaching 0.5% or below. According to a forecast by Bloomberg, the probability of a recession in the US and Eurozone over the next year are at 50% and 80%, respectively.
The economies of Asia-Pacific are also at a lower risk of facing a recession, but they could witness a spillover from the overall global slowdown. The exports from the two regions are also on a downtrend.
The official also said that central banks would tighten the monetary policy for longer if inflation persists. However, there was a green light in the future where the output gaps in leading economies were modest and could bring the aggregate demand and supply into balance.
Moderation in the global food and energy prices could also ease the rising inflation levels and prevent inflation from rising further. Additionally, the long-term inflation levels were also well anchored.
Research by the Bank for International Settlements also said that a soft landing would be reached if the number of job vacancies was high and policy tightening was front-loaded. The conditions seem to be already in place.
Energy prices are on an uptrend
The energy transition could mean that energy prices will steadily increase. Energy security and environmental sustainability were moving in the same direction to reduce dependence upon fossil fuels and transition to renewable energy.
The demand for minerals like copper, aluminum, cobalt, lithium, nickel, and rare earths is also expected to increase. These minerals are critical to new clean energy technologies such as electric vehicles and wind turbines. This could result in the rising prices of metals and minerals needed to sustain renewable energy and technology.