United States

The Clinton Presidency Agenda

According to polls, the race to the White House is over. Clinton has won; Trump has lost. If that proves the case, US economic erosion will slow but imperial foreign policy may escalate, which has critical repercussions in Asia.

The polls reflect the new status quo. Despite her high unfavorability ratings, Clinton now has the support of every second registered voter, whereas Trump, with his high unfavorability ratings, can rely only on every third. As a result, Clinton’s likely voters nationwide amount to 45-50 percent, as against Trump’s 35-40 percent.

Is the U.S. Economic Recovery about to Speed Up?

This Great Graphic was tweeted by Alan Kruger (@Alan_Kruger). Drawing on official data and the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker for Q2 GDP (2.4%), it shows the current business cycle in the context of a four earlier cycles.

Until now, the recovery from the Great Financial Crisis was the weakest from the post-WWII last four contractions.  However, as Kruger points out assuming that the Atlanta Fed's GDP tracker is accurate, this dour assessment will no longer hold.  It will surpass the recovery from the end of the tech bubble at the start of the century. 

Hillary Plays Dangerous Game with Bill’s Legacy

In trying to associate herself with her husband Bill Clinton’s economic legacy, Hillary Clinton is in danger of making herself look vulnerable and weak.  With opinion polls showing a clear lead for Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump, especially among female and ethnic minority voters, it is highly likely the US will have its first female President In November.

Off to Electoral College

This infographic was in the Wall Street Journal on the US election.  It is important to remember that the US does not elect the President by direct popular vote.  This makes the national polls a bit misleading. 

There are 538 Electoral College votes.  To be elected a candidate must secure a majority or 270 Electoral College votes.  Obama received 332 electoral votes and Romney 206.

Experts: Don't Panic, it's Just One Jobs Report

Editor’s note: The U.S. economy added a disappointing 38,000 jobs last month, the smallest number in more than five years, according to seasonally adjusted figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The weak numbers suggest a June interest rate hike – which the Federal Reserve had recently hinted is possible – is now off the table. We asked two of our experts to give us their quick takes on the report.

We need a credible plan for the economy

Are We Missing a Big Infrastructure Opportunity?

The US presidential selection process is well underway, and yet there has been no coherent discussion of fiscal policy.  In part, this is because it does not appear particularly urgent.  The US deficit peaked in 2009 at 10.1% of GDP.  Last year it stood at what for most OECD countries an enviable 2.6%.  This year and next, it is forecast by private sector economists to reach 2.9%.

Why are People in the U.S. Still Going Hungry?

Unfortunately, even though the U.S. is bountiful and the world’s biggest individual exporter of food, millions of Americans actually are not.

Each year the Department of Agriculture runs a nationwide survey to determine how many people go hungry. The latest figures show almost 6 percent of households – about 18 million people – are consistently not getting enough to eat. Another 8 percent – 30 million people – have occasional problems feeding themselves.

ISM Data Shows Services Leaving Manufacturing in the Dust

The October employment data convinced many that a Fed hike in December is a strong probability.  On top of the strongest average hourly earnings in several years, the US reported a record increase in September consumer credit.  Earlier last week, the US reported the stronger than expected October auto sales.  It was the second month in excess of 18 mln vehicles at an annualized rate.  This happened two other times since 1990.