Serbia and Montenegro Economic Forecast

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In 1992, Serbia and Montenegro formed as one country in Southeast Europe, which came from two original republics known as SFR Yugoslavia – Serbia and Montenegro. However, after Yugoslavia split, this new country became a federation called the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia but in 2003, it changed again to become a station union known as the State Union of Serbia and Montenegro.


In 1992, Serbia and Montenegro formed as one country in Southeast Europe, which came from two original republics known as SFR Yugoslavia – Serbia and Montenegro. However, after Yugoslavia split, this new country became a federation called the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia but in 2003, it changed again to become a station union known as the State Union of Serbia and Montenegro.

For Serbia, the economy suffered for a long time primarily because of corruption, long periods of sanctions internationally, and the 1999 NATO airstrikes that damaged facilities and infrastructure. However, once the former President was ousted in 2000 new measures were put in place to stabilize the country’s economy under the Democratic Opposition of Serbia or DOS. This coupled with rejoining the International Monetary Fund, World Bank, and European Bank for Reconstruction and Building and Development, the economy improved.

Although more change is needed, progress has been seen in trade, restructuring of privatization and enterprise, and liberalization. For Montenegro, the major change to the economy was breaking ties from federal control, as well as Serbia. With this, the country has sustained a central bank, gathered customs tariffs, managed the country’s budget, and started using the Deutschmark, followed by the Euro. Additionally, this break led Montenegro to quit membership with a number of international financial institutions, followed by joining the World Bank and International Monetary Fund. Montenegro also needs more change but the latest major developments include applying for membership with the European Union and privatizing the dominant industry of aluminum complex.

Serbia and Montenegro GDP Forecast

As far as growth, the Serbia GDP (Gross Domestic Product, Current Prices, US Dollars) was reported in 2008 at $49.34 billion in US dollars, following a slight decline that left 2009 at $42.879 billion. With this change, the country was ranked worldwide at number 75. For future predictions, experts believe that 2010 will hit a GDP of $43.62 billion and for 2015 a more significant change will take the GDP to $62.83 billion in US dollars. Then for the Montenegro GDP (Gross Domestic Product, Current Prices, US Dollars), 2008 closed at $4.54 billion in US dollars. The following year included a decline of 9.46%, which meant for 2009 the GDP was $4.114 billion. The 2010 and 2015 numbers being predicted for Montenegro’s GDP are $4.11 billion and $5.797 billion (US currency), respectively.

Serbia and Montenegro Unemployment Forecast

According to the latest reports for 2009, the Serbia population is approximately 7.4 million. Then as far as the Serbia unemployment rate, 2009 showed that 750,000 people were without jobs, more than 13,000 from the prior month. Then by the first quarter of 2010, the number of unemployed increased by another 31,000. For the Montenegro population, numbers are reported at 672,180. Regarding the Montenegro unemployment, 2009 reported 14.7%.

Serbia and Montenegro Inflation Rate Forecast

Experts who predict future economies pay close attention to inflation. For the Serbia inflation rate, year-end 2008 were at 12.43%. Over the next year, a reduction of 34.73% was experienced, closing 2009 at 8.11% and putting this country at number 35 for world rankings. Working with historical data and following a specific formula, predictions for 2010 put the inflation rate at 4.80%. From there, 2015 shows a slight change to 4.00%. As far as the Montenegro inflation rate, 2008 was reported at 8.99%. However, at the end of 2009, a 60.39% reduction was seen, closing the year at 3.559%. With that, 2009 was ranked worldwide at number 79. Predictions being made for 2010 and 2015 put the country’s inflation rate at minus 0.56%, a decline of 115.76% from the prior year, and 3.215%, respectively.

Serbia and Montenegro Current Account Balance Forecast

For a country’s current account balance, goods, services, income, and current transfers are the primary classifications used. In 2009, the Serbia current account balance was at minus $2.429 billion in US dollars, placing the country at number 149. Then following a slight reduction from the prior year, 2008 closed at minus $8.65 billion. Experts forecast that 2010 will end with an account balance of minus $3.60 billion whereas 2015 is expected to be at a negative $3.568 billion in US currency. The Montenegro current account balance reported in 2009 at minus $1.119 billion in US dollars. With this number, Montenegro had a worldwide ranking of number 122. For this, the change was a 53.02% reduction from 2008, which closed at minus $2.38 billion. For the future, experts believe 2010 will be at minus $0.70 billion, followed by a slight change to minus $0.522 billion in US dollars for year-end 2015.

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