Malawi Economic Forecast

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Throughout the world, Malawi has been one of the least developed and most densely populated countries. Approximately 85% of the people live in rural areas and depend primarily on agricultural, agrarian, fisheries, and farming sectors for work. Malawi also has a good export trade with 50% being comprised of tobacco although this particular crop only encourages short-term growth. While this is good, Malawi still depends on inflows of economic aid from the International Monetary Fund, or IMF, as well as the World Bank along with several private donors.


Throughout the world, Malawi has been one of the least developed and most densely populated countries. Approximately 85% of the people live in rural areas and depend primarily on agricultural, agrarian, fisheries, and farming sectors for work. Malawi also has a good export trade with 50% being comprised of tobacco although this particular crop only encourages short-term growth. While this is good, Malawi still depends on inflows of economic aid from the International Monetary Fund, or IMF, as well as the World Bank along with several private donors. While Malawi struggled in a number of areas over the years to include corruption, poor education, and mismanaged finances. Today Malawi receives relieve under the Heavily In-Public Debted Poor Countries program or HIPC. The anticipation is that ongoing challenges will be conquered to include the country becoming a free market economy, people being educated and treated more effectively for AIDS and HIV, development of educational facilities, and better discipline for financial matters specifically related to foreign donors.

Malawi GDP Forecast

For economic growth, Malawi is reliant on high yields of agricultural production. The farming and livestock sectors are important to the people, but also the country’s economic stability because some 90% of the people in Malawi work in these sectors and for the total GDP, agricultural exports account for nearly 85%. Therefore, the Malawi GDP (Gross Domestic Product, Current Prices, US Dollar) depends on these sectors and the working population depends on continued agricultural production and livestock activities. Although the GDP struggled in some areas such as foreign investment, some of the other factors were doing well. In 2008, Malawi’s GDP was at $3.93 billion (US currency) and after a 16.34% increase, 2009 closed at $4.57 billion. At that time, the GDP gave this country the position of 142 for world rankings. As far as estimates for the 2010 GDP, experts believe a very small change will occur so at year-end, the numbers are $4.78 billion. Experts do not believe any significant change will happen from 2010 to 2015 so the prediction out five years is at $7.229 billion, also in US dollars.

Malawi Unemployment Forecast

The Malawi population as last reported was around 15.1 million people and considering the land is 118.5 square kilometers, the country is very dense. Forecasters must consider special circumstances when looking at the Malawi unemployment rate in that with AIDS and HIV being so prevalent, the overall death rate is very high. Even the Malawi unemployment rate is heavily impacted by widespread poverty and the AIDS epidemic.

Malawi Inflation Rate Forecast

For an accurate inflation rate to be formulated, experts will use an average consumer price index of 2000=100, which is not for the end of period but for the actual year. In 2008, the Malawi inflation rate was reported at 8.71% and over the next 24 months, it had little change. Therefore, the year-end 2009 ended slightly lower at 8.441%, giving it a world ranking of number 34. Inflation for this country is expected to be around 8.36% in 2010 and just five years later in 2015, at 5.621%.

Malawi Current Account Balance Forecast

In order for forecasters to predict the economy of a country, several things must be used. One area of the economy of this country is the Malawi current account balance, which focuses on BOP transactions between this country and the remainder of the world. From reported numbers in 2008 of minus $0.39 billion in US dollars to numbers for 2009 of minus $0.36 billion only a small 7.69% reduction was seen that put the country at number 94 for worldwide rankings. Current forecasts for 2010 is that the current account balance will be minus $0.05, closing the year at minus $0.05 billion and in 2015, the numbers will be much the same at a negative $0.116 billion in US dollars.

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