Boeing Revises Its 20-Year Delivery Forecast, Cites Economic Turbulence
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In response to the changing industry and economic landscape, Boeing has cut down its industry-wide forecast by nearly 2,500 aircraft. The company explained that apart from the economic situation, labor shortages and other factors like the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine were cited as reasons.
Boeing To Make 41,170 Aircraft Deliveries In The Next 2 Decades
Additionally, Boeing’s predicted demand will be delivering 19,575 new aircraft over the next 10 years and 41,170 aircraft over the next 20 years. These include widebody aircraft, single aisle, regional jets, and freighters.
This is less than the predicted 20-year figure of 43,610 new aircraft deliveries. While commenting on the revised projections, Boeing expects that global airlines will operate 47,080 aircraft in 2041. But during its market outlook in 2021, Boeing pegged the size at 49,405 aircraft in 2040.
The company’s latest projection represents a 2.8% annual fleet expansion from 2019 to 2041, with the 2019 fleet including 25,900 aircraft.
The latest report continues a tradition by the company to revise its previous projections downwards. Boeing estimated its 2019 outlook to be 44,040 deliveries in 2 decades, with the fleet expected to deliver 50,660 aircraft by 2038.
Boeing Cites Labor Shortages And Geopolitical Concerns
Darren Hulst, Boeing’s vice-president of commercial marketing, blamed the downward projection on economic factors. He noted that the company is looking at expected slower economic growth and financial market instability, which can affect aircraft deliveries greatly.
Hulst added that there is a strong demand in the sector as more people are clamoring to travel. However, the demand cannot be equated with supply (slights and seats) because of several bottlenecks which include labor shortages. The depths of the pandemic have affected the operational capabilities of airlines. The industry is still suffering an insufficient number of workers such as ground staffers and pilots.
Additionally, the present geopolitical tensions have heightened the problems in the sector, which has prompted Boeing to make downward delivery revisions.
As part of the sanctions against Russia for invading Ukraine, the Western countries stopped the sale of aircraft to Russia. The sanctions alone have had a notable impact as they forced Boeing to remove 1,540 deliveries from its 20-year forecast, Hulst added.