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Vietnam Economic Forecast

By: EconomyWatch Content Team Date: 26 June 2010

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Vietnam is a developing country that in the past three decades has spent tremendous effort in recovering from the devastation from the Vietnam War. Other challenges that this country has seen is the loss of financial support from the old Soviet Bloc and a centrally planned economy with too much rigidity. However, since 2001 the government of Vietnam has been dedicated to economic liberalization, along with international integration.

Today, Vietnam has become a more competitive market, one driven significantly by exportation. In addition, Vietnam became a member of the AESEAN Free Trade Area and joined with the USA and Vietnam Bilateral Trade Agreement. When these two changes were implemented, Vietnam’s economy began to see even greater change. In fact, export to the USA has increased by a whopping 900% from 2001 to 2007. Another major change made by this country to boost and stabilize the economy is joining the World Trade Organization. With this, Vietnam is now seen as a viable country for international trade and foreign investment. While good things are happening, high unemployment and inflation rates need to be reduced.

Vietnam GDP Forecast

Although tremendous progress has been seen with the Vietnam economy, the country still faces a few more challenges. However, with exports to the USA increasing so dramatically and Vietnam getting involved with several international organizations, the country is on the right track pertaining to the Gross Domestic Product or GDP. In looking at the Vietnam GDP (Gross Domestic Product, Current Prices, US Prices) for 2008, the numbers closed at $89.83 billion in US dollars. Then at the end of 2009, the numbers were virtually unchanged at $92.439 billion, putting this country at number 57 for world rankings. Future GDP numbers are being predicted at $103.12 billion in US currency for 2010 and for 2015 experts state a massive change will occur, pushing the year-end numbers to $179.816 billion in US dollars.

Vietnam Unemployment Forecast

In 2009, it was reported that the Vietnam population was just over 87 million. This country is densely populated with an estimated 238 people per every square kilometer. Because Vietnam has a tropical climate, low lying areas, mountains, and a highland region, it offers diverse work opportunities. Today, Vietnam’s rich natural resources include coal, manganese, phosphates, chromate, bauxite, forests, hydropower, and off shore oil. Because of this diversity, the Vietnam unemployment rate is relatively low at 4.3%, down from 2008’s numbers of 4.7%.

Vietnam Inflation Rate Forecast

For experts to determine the future for the Vietnam inflation rate, averages for the given year are used instead of end-of-period. In 2008, the inflation rate for this country was reported at 23.12%, followed by a reduction of almost 71%. With that change, 2009 had an inflation rate of 6.717%, which put Vietnam at number 50 worldwide. In 2010, experts believe the inflation rate will be at 12.00%, only a slight change from 2009 but for 2015, a larger change is expected, putting the inflation rate at 5%.

Vietnam Current Account Balance Forecast

Experts also consider the Vietnam current account balance when looking at the overall economy. For this, certain classifications are used to predict future numbers. At year-end 2008, the account balance was minus $10.71 billion in US dollars. With a slight reduction over the next 12 months, 2009 ended up at minus $7.176 billion. At that time, the country was ranked at number 167 worldwide. Then for 2010, predictions put the current account balance at minus $7.12 billion in US dollars with 2015 closing at minus $8.618 billion.