Thailand Economic Forecast

June 25, 2010Thailandby EW Content Team


Thailand has a free enterprise economy, one with well-developed facilities and infrastructure. Overall, the country’s policy is pro-investment, making this country one of the top performers in Eastern Asia from 2002 to 2004. While the economy remained stable for many years, from 2005 to 2007 the Gross Domestic Product dropped significantly. The primary reason was an ongoing political crisis that put a temporary hold on major facilities and infrastructure projects, as well as a decline of consumer and investor confidence. With this, Thailand’s reputation began to decline.

On a positive note, exports helped boost the country’s economy from 2005 to 2008, which resulted in an average 17.5% increase each year. However, with the 2006 coup, a time when the military delayed government imposed capital controls and made Foreign Direct Investment out of reach, the degree of business instability grew. Since that time, the problem has been resolved but the controversial capital controls put a black cloud of Thailand’s economy. Today, the government is trying to get the economic structure back on track but with the issue of political uncertainly still an issue, finishing the mega facilities and infrastructure projects is in limbo.

Thailand's GDP Forecast

Although Thailand’s economy has struggled over the past decade, in 1999 and 2000 things began to change for the better, primarily because of improved exportation. Unfortunately, 2001 brought some weakening of the economy but with an eventual increase in domestic spending, it appears that Thailand’s economy is once again moving in the right direction. For the Thailand GDP (Gross Domestic Product, Current Prices, US Dollars), 2010 closed at $318.85 billion in US dollars.

It's GDP (PPP) stood at US$586.877 billion in 2010. This figure is 8.83% higher than its 2009 value, and this does signifies a positive recovery from the 2008 global financial crisis. Forecasters expect positive growth in 2011, but slightly lower than that in 2010, with a 5.10% increase to US$616.78 billion. Thailand will see a GDP (PPP) growth of 5.9 to 6.2 percent from 2012 to 2016. By 2016, its GDP (PPP) will be US$839.64 billion.

In 2010, Thailand's GDP (PPP) per capita is US$9,187.43. This figure is 8.23 percent higher than its 2009 value of US$8448.70. GDP (PPP) per capita is expected to increase by 4.47 percent to US$9,598.01 in 2011.  From 2012 to 2016, Thailand will see a growth of between 5.3 percent to 6.2 percent in GDP (PPP). By 2016, GDP (PPP) will hit US$12,681

Thailand's Unemployment Forecast

The Thailand population is 64 million, making this the 50th largest country worldwide and the 21st most populous country in the world. Of the people living in Thailand, it is estimated that more than 2.2 million are both legal and illegal immigrants. For labor force, just over 38 million have jobs, working in agriculture, industry, and the services sector. For the Thailand unemployment rate, numbers are actually low, with 2010 reporting 1.04%.

Unemployment rate is expected to rise to 1.2% level, and remain consistent from 2012 to 2016.

Thailand's Inflation Rate & Current Account Balance Forecast

For the Thailand inflation rate to be forecasted, experts use averages for the given year, not data for end-of-period. Reported numbers for year-end 2008 put the inflation rate for this country at 5.47% but with a reduction of 115.47% over the next 12 months, 2009 closed at minus $0.846%, putting Thailand at number 170 worldwide. Predictions for the inflation rate by 2010 and 2015 are 3.25%, another huge reduction of 483.57% from the previous year and then 1.381%, respectively.

As far as the Thailand current account balance, using specific information forecasters have the ability to look at this country’s economy compared to the economy of other countries in the world. For 2010, the account balance was at US$14.784 billion. This is a significant drop of 32.39 percent from its 2009 value of US$21.87 billion. Experts forecasts that Thailand's GDP (PPP) is expected to decline further by 38.2 percent in 2011, to reach a value of US$9.14 billion.

The country's current account balance is expected to fluctuate between US$6.05 billion and US$8.55 billion from 2012 to 2015, before rising again in 2016. By 2016, Thailand's current account balance will hit US$10.19 billion, surpassing its 2011 value for the first time in 5 years.

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