Poland Economic Forecast

By: EconomyWatch Content Team   Date: 21 June 2010

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Since 1990, Poland has been seeking economic liberalization. Today, the country has achieved its goal, now being considered a transition economy. Due to an increase of private consumption, investment inflows with the European Union, and a boost of corporate investments, the Gross Domestic Product saw an increase of 5.3% in 2008. Although the GDP is still average with the country being under the European Union since 2004, this membership has provided structural investment that helped boost the economy. Even though Poland’s economy has experienced many positive things, government officials expect the performance could improve further. If this country can get some of the remaining deficiencies specific to the business environment under control, things could be much better. However, some of the challenges Poland is still addressing include bureaucratic red tape, some minor but persistent corruption, a rigid workforce code, and a commercial court system that is inefficient. With an announcement being made that business-friendly reform is on the way, as well as reduced taxes and lower public sector spending, people are optimistic.

Poland GDP Forecast

Poland is currently the sixth largest economy in Europe. In addition, this country’s economy known for being one of the fastest growing in the Central part of Europe seeing a growth rate of 6% and more prior to the global financial crisis of 2008. Regarding the Poland GDP (Gross Domestic Product, Current Prices, US Dollars), the experts look at the GDP in national currency, as well as projections for the exchange rate. Based on these values, the GDP for 2008 was at $528.32 billion in US dollars. From that time to the end of 2009, a reduction of 18.57% was experienced, placing the 2009 GDP at $430.197 billion. At that time, Poland was rated at number 21 around the world. Then by 2010, predictions are that the GDP will be around $479.03 billion but with a significant change, 2015 should hit $635.452 billion (US currency).

Poland Unemployment Forecast

Another important part of the country’s economy is unemployment. Today, the Poland unemployment rate is at 9.7% and while high, it is starting to come down. Since the country’s officials have been pushing hard for liberalization of the economy and has already been able to move away from a centrally planned economy to one that is mainly a capitalistic market, good things are happening. For the Poland population, the last report numbers show that some 38 million people live in this country and of those, close to 17 million hold jobs in the agriculture, industry, and services sector.

Poland Inflation Rate Forecast

The Poland inflation rate is also carefully monitored by forecasters so they have a good idea of what the future holds. To determine inflation, an index of 2000=100 for average consumer prices is used. For the 2008 numbers, Poland reported 4.22% and then with a moderate reduction of 18.13%, 2009 closed at 3.451%. This placed the country worldwide at number 85. As for future forecasts, experts believe that the 2010 inflation rate will be at 2.33% whereas 2015 will be virtually the same at 2.5%.

Poland Current Account Balance Forecast

With the Poland current account balance, all transactions are used with the exception of those with capital and financial items. The 2008 numbers for current account balance were minus $26.91 billion in US dollars. Over the next 24 months, a decline of 73.69% occurred, which left 2009 at a negative $7.08 billion. With this new reported number, Poland was ranked worldwide at number 165. Then regarding the 2010 and 2015 forecasts, experts speculate numbers will close at minus $13.35 billion and minus $18.598 billion in US dollars, respectively.


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