Berlin, 20 Mar. The World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) recently forecast weak figures for the travel and tourism economy GDP. Expectations are that it will shrink by 3.6% this year and continue to be weak into 2010. Growth that year is only forecast to be 0.3%.

These WTCC 2009 Economic Impact Research figures were announced at the yearly ITB Berlin press conference. Attending the conference were travel and tourism leaders from around the world including senior government executives from various countries.

2008 suffered badly due to the high cost of travel as a result of soaring oil prices. 2009 is off to a bad start with many airlines cutting back routes. For example, capacity has been slashed on Emirates routes from Dubai to New York, Rome, Toronto and throughout China due to the weak tourism forecasts.

This has been bad news for Airbus, as its new A380 cost $18 billion to develop, but the 525-seat plane cannot always be filled on many long-haul routes.

“The A380 is so huge that in the current environment it’s really hard to fill,” said Commerzbank analyst Frank Skodzik, in Frankfurt.

"This year, the task of assessing Travel & Tourism trends and drawing up forecasts has been more challenging than ever because of all the uncertainties," WTTC President & CEO Jean-Claude Baumgarten, announced at the WTTC event. "Lower fuel costs will make a difference, as will lower general inflation, which should reverse part of last year's squeeze on households' spending power. But given how widespread and deep the current recession is, it is inevitable that travel and tourism will continue to be affected."

While the airlines suffer so do the economies which rely on tourism for a major part of their revenue. These tend to be small, third-world or developing nations, and will feel the effects the hardest.

“Many tourist economies have been experiencing rough times. It really started after post-September 11th fears of travel began and has become worse with the cost of oil and now indefinite economic uncertainty,” said EconomyWatch correspondent Chen Xuilien. “In Asia, places like Bali, the Thai islands like Ko Samui and Phuket, The Maldives, Goa and other tourist hotspots have felt the strain.”

Baumgarten added that tourism indeed contributes substantially to the jobs and economic well-being – even reduction of poverty – in many countries. He noted that this is "a fact that policy-makers would do well to recognize and take into account in their short- to medium-term strategies. "

He continued, “The industry is not expecting a bail-out. It needs a supportive framework from government to help it weather the current storm. And governments would also do well to recognize Travel & Tourism's potential to energies the economy once the current crisis eases."

While things don’t look so rosy for the short-term, there is hope for the future. The travel and tourism industry is expected to grow 4% per year in real terms over the next decade. In 2019, it will employ an estimated 275 people, contributing a whopping 8.4% of global jobs.

Hiroko Mirafiori, EconomyWatch.com