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>> Newsletter >> MONTHLY TRENDS IN MAJOR ECONOMIC INDICATORS
MONTHLY TRENDS IN MAJOR ECONOMIC INDICATORS
(FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH 2005)

VARIABLES LATEST FIGURES AVAILABLE
INFLATION RATE (WPI) 5.05% as on Mar 26th 2005
INFLATION RATE (CPI) 3.8% over a year
GROWTH RATE OF M3 13.1% (over a year) as on Mar 18 2005
PRMIE LENDING RATE 10.25-10.75%
Re/$ EXCHANGE RATE 43.75 as on Mar 31st 2005
FOREX RESERVES $140.907 billion as on Mar 25th 2005
INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (IIP) 8.1% over the previous year
GROWTH RATE OF EXPORTS 27%
GROWTH RATE OF IMPORTS 36.3%

INFLATION

The annual rate of inflation, calculated on point-to-point basis, stood at 5.05 percent (Provisional) for the week ended 26/03/2005 as against 5.11 percent (Provisional) for the previous week and 4.64 percent during the corresponding week of the previous year. Inflation rate fell during the month as the Wholesale Price Index for 'All Commodities' for the week ended 5th March 2005 calculated on point-to-point basis, stood at 5.30 percent.

The index for primary articles rose by 0.4 percent from the 3rd week of March. The index for manufactured products rose by 0.2 percent mainly on account of rise in prices of beverages, tobacco and tobacco products and textiles. But the group 'fuel power, light and lubricant' remained static.


The all-India CPI(UNME) for February, 2005 was 440 and didn't show any change from the index for the previous month i.e. January, 2005. At the group level, the index for February, 2005 when compared to last month i.e. January 2005, has increased by 0.38 percent in respect of "Fuel & Light" group followed by 0.22 percent in respect of "Miscellaneous" group and decreased by 0.24 percent in respect of "Food, Beverages & Tobacco" group. With the corresponding all-India index for February 2004 being 424, the index for the month of February 2005 has shown a rise of 3.8% over a year.

MONEY SUPPLY
Stock of money was Rs 22,65,328 Crore on March 15, 2005. So far in the financial year 2004-05, this variation is of the order of 13.1 %. In terms of amount, the total outstanding money stock is higher by Rs 2,62,226 crore than that in the same period a year ago. The components in money supply namely, currency with public, Demand deposits with banks, time deposits with banks and "other" deposits with banks witnessed a growth rate of 13.3, 15.3, 12.7 and 3.9 % respectively. Compared to the last year growth rates in each of these components, all witnessed lower growths. Maximum variation was seen in the other deposits with RBI, which was 29.8 % in same period last year. Among the sources of variation in money supply net bank credit to govt and net foreign exchange assets of banking sector saw a decline while bank credit to commercial sector went up. Compared to growth rate in 2003-04, banking sector net non-monetary liabilities shot up.

INTEREST RATES
Prime lending rate of major 5 banks remained static at 10.25%-10.75% in the month of March also. Bank rate is also the same as of last month's figure of 6%.

INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
According to Central Statistical official release the IIP stands at 206.9, which is higher by 4.9% as compared to the level in the month of February 2004.

The Indices of Industrial Production for the Mining, Manufacturing and Electricity sectors for the month of February 2005 stand at 151.5, 218.9, and 170.5 respectively, with the corresponding growths of (-)2.3%, 6.2% and (-)0.9% as compared to February 2004. The cumulative growth during April-February, 2004-05 over the corresponding period of 2003-04 in the three sectors have been 4.0%, 8.7% and 5.3% respectively, with the overall growth in the General Index being 8.1%

As many as 15 of the 17 two-digit industry groups have shown positive growth during the month of February 2005 as compared to the corresponding month of the previous year. 'Textile Products (including Wearing Apparel)' have shown the highest growth of 23.4%, followed by 18.3% in 'Paper & Paper Products and Printing, Publishing & Allied Industries' and 17.8% in 'Beverages, Tobacco and Related products'. On the other hand, 'Wool, Silk and Man-Made Fibre Textiles' have shown a negative growth of 7.8% followed by a decline of 0.6% in 'Food Products'.

As per Use-based classification, the growth in February 2005 over February 2004 is 0.8% in Basic goods, 4.5% in Capital goods and 2.4% in Intermediate goods. The Consumer durables and Consumer non-durables have recorded growth of 14.2% and 10.2% respectively, with the overall growth in Consumer goods being 11.2%.

EXCHANGE RATE
Re weakened against dollar in March 2005 compared to its level in last month. Re/$ exchange rate stood at Rs 43.75 per US $ on the last day of March 2005. During the month, the exchange rate revolved around 43.7, with maximum appreciation on March 14 (43.52) and max depreciation on March 24th 2005 (43.83). Rupee value strengthened against other major currencies. The exchange rate against EURO, GBP and Japanese Yen was at 56.58, 82.08 and 40.84 respectively on March 31, 2005.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES
The Indian foreign exchange reserve position continues to be buoyant with reserves standing at US $1,40,907 million in the week ending March 25, 2005. Foreign currency assets were US $ 1,35,089 million, US $ 1,223 lower than previous week's figure when the forex reserves crossed US $ 142 billion.

EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
Exports grew by 27.0 per cent in dollar terms in April-February, 2005 as compared with 15.5 per cent in the corresponding period last year. Imports grew by 36.3 per cent during April-February, 2005 as compared with 26.5 per cent last year. POL imports grew by 44.4 while non POL imports grew by 33.4%.

SENSEX
The two main indices, Nifty of the NSE and the Sensex of The Stock Exchange, Mumbai (BSE) - touched all-time closing highs of 2,168.95 and 6,915.09 respectively on March 8, 2005. However, since then the sensex had failed to carry the momentum and had been falling. The trend continued throughout the last week of March, when it fell below 6,500 mark and stood at 6492 on March 31, 2005. Nifty closed at 2036 points.