| VARIABLES | LATEST FIGURES AVAILABLE |
| INFLATION RATE (WPI) | 4.95% as on Feb 26th 2005 |
| INFLATION RATE (CPI) | 3.8% over a year |
| GROWTH RATE OF M3 | 10.8% (over a year) as on Feb 18 2005 |
| PRMIE LENDING RATE | 10.25-10.75% |
| Re/$ EXCHANGE RATE | 43.64 as on Feb 28th 2005 |
| FOREX RESERVES | $135.658 billion as on 28th 2004 |
| INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (IIP) | 8% over the previous year |
| GROWTH RATE OF EXPORTS | 25.6% |
| GROWTH RATE OF IMPORTS | 34.7% |
INFLATION
The annual rate of inflation, calculated on point to point basis, stood at 4.95 percent for the week ended 26/02/2005 as against 4.83 percent for the previous week and 5.21 percent during the corresponding week of the previous year, according to the provisional release by the Central Stastical Organization. The official Wholesale Price Index for 'All Commodities' (Base: 1993-94 = 100) for the week ended 26th February 2005 declined by 0.1 percent to 188.7 (Provisional) from 188.8 (Provisional) for the previous week. |
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The index for primary articles, which carries weight of 22% declined by 0.4 percent to 185.1 (Provisional) from 185.8 (Provisional) for the previous week..
The index for 'Food Articles' and 'Non food Articles' group both declined by 0.4 percent from the previous week. The index for the manufactured goods group rose by 0.1 percent to 167.6 (Provisional) from 167.5 (Provisional) for the previous week. The index for fuel power, light and lubricants with a weight of 14.23%p rose marginally to 289.0 (Provisional) from 288.9 (Provisional) for the previous week due to higher prices of coke (64%). Given the decline trend in price level for some months, the Reserve Bank of India has also said that the inflation for the 2004-05 will be lower than estimated 6.5 per cent and the economic growth will be higher than projected 6-6.5 per cent.
The all-India Consumer Price Index for Urban Non-Manual Employees CPI(UNME) on base 1984-85=100, for the month of January, 2005 in comparison with the corresponding all-India index for January, 2004 has shown a rise of 3.8% over a year.
MONEY SUPPLY
Stock of money was Rs 22,19,739 Crore on Feb 18 2005. So far in the financial year 2004-05, this variation is of the order of 10.8 %. In terms of amount, the total outstanding money stock is higher by Rs 2,16,637 crore than that in the same period a year ago. The components in money supply namely, currency with public, Demand deposits with banks, time deposits with banks and "other" deposits with banks witnessed a growth rate of 10.9, 5.4, 11.9 and -15.7% respectively. Compared to the last year growth rates in each of these components, all witnessed lower growths. Maximum variation was seen in the other with banks, which was 7% in same period last year. Among the sources of variation in money supply net bank credit to govt and net foreign exchange assets of banking sector saw a decline while bank credit to commercial sector went up. Compared to growth rate in 2003-04, banking sector net monetary liabilities shot up. All this contributed to a lower money supply growth this fiscal year (till Feb 18, 2005).
INTEREST RATES
Prime lending rate of major 5 banks was in between 10.25%-10.75% as on Feb 18, 2005. This is remaining stable over last few months. Bank rate is also the same as of last month's figure of 6%.
INDEX OF INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
The General Index stands at 220.3, which is higher by 8.0% as compared to the level in the month of January 2004.
The Indices of Industrial Production for the Mining, Manufacturing and Electricity sectors for the month of January 2005 stand at 164.2, 231.9, and 187.3 respectively, with the corresponding growths of 1.9%, 9.3% and 2.3% as compared to January 2004. The cumulative growth during April-January, 2004-05 over the corresponding period of 2003-04 in the three sectors have been 4.6%, 9.2% and 6.0% respectively, with the overall growth in the General Index being 8.4%
As many as 14 of the 17 two-digit industry groups have shown positive growth during the month of January 2005 as compared to the corresponding month of the previous year. 'Jute and Other Vegetable Fibre Textiles (Except Cotton)' have shown the highest growth of 59.1%, followed by 30.8% in 'Textile Products (including Wearing Apparel)' and 17.9% in 'Other Manufacturing Industries'. On the other hand, 'Wood and Wood Products; Furniture and Fixtures' have shown a negative growth of 16.7% followed by a decline of 2.9% in 'Rubber, Plastic, Petroleum and Coal Products' and 0.8% in 'Wool, Silk and Man-Made Fibre Textiles'.
As per Use-based classification, the growth in January 2005 over January 2004 is 5.3% in Basic goods, 10.6% in Capital goods and 1.8% in Intermediate goods. The Consumer durables and Consumer non-durables have recorded growth of 13.2% and 15.6% respectively, with the overall growth in Consumer goods being 15.1%.
EXCHANGE RATE
Re/$ exchange rate stood at Rs 43.64 per US $ on Feb 28, 2005. During the month of January, the exchange rate revolved around 43.5, with maximum appreciation on Feb 3rd (43.36) and max depreciation on Feb 16th 2005 (43.82). Rupee value against other major currencies such as EURO, GBP and Japanese Yen was at 57.94, 83.87 and 41.7 respectively as on Feb 28th 2005.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES
The Indian foreign exchange reserve position continues to be buoyant with reserves standing at US $1,35,658 million in the week ending Feb 25, 2005.
Foreign currency assets were US $ 129844 million, US $ 2,692 higher than previous week's figure. Compared to their last year figure this variation is of the amount US $ 22,699 million, RBI weekly statement reported. Exchange reserves have continued to rise for over some months except for week ended Feb 5, 2005, when it fell marginally to Us $ 1,28, 914 million from previous week's US $ 1,29,720 million.
EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
Exports in dollar terms during April-January, 2005 increased by 25.6 percent as compared to an increase of 11.7 percent during April-January, 2004. Imports increased by 34.7 percent during April-January, 2005 as against an increase of 24.7 percent last year.
SENSEX
The Sensex continued its upward march as the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) crossed record levels owing to surge in both domestic investments & Foreign Institutional Investments (FIIs). Indian share prices closed 2.19 per cent higher on 28 Feb at a record level. Sensex rose 144.14 points to 6,713.86, a record closing high, crossing the previous peak of 6,679.33 set on February 14. Total volume on the Bombay Stock Exchange was Rs 29.40 billion ($674 million) on Feb 28th 2005. BSE Sensex reached above 6600 points in January 2005 only, however volatility in stock prices continued in the month of February too. For the past six months the stock prices trend has been in an upward direction. Given the upward direction in the stock prices the expectations are on BSE crossing 7K mark in the month of March.
