22 August 2016
EM ended last week on a soft note. Fed tightening expectations were buffeted first by hawkish Dudley comments and then by the more balanced FOMC minutes.
On net, the markets adjusted the odds for tightening by year-end a little higher from the previous week, and stand at the highest odds since the Brexit vote. Yet despite the strong jobs data in June and July, odds of a move on September 21 or November 2 are still low, with the December 14 meeting seen as the most likely for the next hike.