Featured Articles Archive

There is still much work to be done to help female politicians in Asia.

In Asia, Gender Quotas Were Supposed to Help Female Politicians

Date: 24 June 2016

In January 2016, Tsai Ing-wen made history after being elected as Taiwan’s first female president. Several women before her such as Park Geun-hye in South Korea, Ying-luck Shinawatra in Thailand and Aung San Suu Kyi in Myanmar have all risen to top political leadership in recent years. With these high-profile female politicians featured in the media, it may appear that the political glass ceiling has been shattered in East Asia.

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Investors are flocking to the U.S. dollar, stocks and treasuries after Brexit.

Brexit Forces Scramble for Safety

Date: 24 June 2016

The UK's decision to leave the EU spurred a dramatic risk-off move through the capital markets.  The dollar, yen, and gold soared.  Equities and emerging market assets sold off hard. Core bond yields fell sharply.

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TPP opponents and proponents are getting hostile.

Who is Trashing the TPP and Who Can Save It?

Date: 23 June 2016

The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is under siege, with presidential candidates on both sides of the aisle voicing increasingly protectionist positions. As the general election gets into full swing this fall, the anti-trade rhetoric promises to reach fever pitch, taking down TPP in the process.

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India has the greatest domestic demand of all EM countries.

India's Domestic Demand is Highest in the EM Space

Date: 23 June 2016

According to current IMF projections, India is now the fastest growing major economy in the world. In 2016, it is expected to grow over a full percentage point faster than China. This is a remarkable turnaround by any standard and especially impressive against the backdrop of a stagnant global economy.

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Turkey's EU application dates back to 1987.

Turkey's Turn at the EU Plate

Date: 23 June 2016

In the vitriolic debate over the UK's membership of the EU, Turkey's potential membership became one of the talking points.  Prime Minister Cameron, who has advocated Turkey's eventual membership, is likely correct in his assessment that this that if it does take place, it won't be anytime soon.

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Many investors will be on the sidelines during the EU referendum vote.

The Markets Watch and Wait

Date: 23 June 2016

The UK's referendum is underway.  The capital markets are continuing the move that began last week with the murder of UK MP Cox.  The tragedy seemed to mark a shift in investor sentiment.  Sterling bottomed on June 17 just ahead of $1.40.  Earlier today in Asia, after more polls showed a move toward remain, sterling rallied to almost $1.4845, its highest level since last December.

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For a 10 year period ending 2014, Ethiopia annual per capita growth was 8%.

Ethiopia Flexes its Manufacturing Muscle

Date: 22 June 2016

Ethiopia seems to be attracting the attention of economists interested in Africa, and for good reason. Except for Rwanda, Ethiopia is the only African country whose economic growth has been consistently high for more than a decade without relying on a natural resource boom.

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Religion, Gender and Culture conspire to bog down Indonesia.

Indonesia Mired in Religious and Gender Conflicts

Date: 22 June 2016

Religious identity and gender relations are integral to women’s experiences of citizenship in Indonesia. While around 88 percent of Indonesia’s population is Muslim, it is emphatically not an Islamic state, in which state law and Islamic law are coterminous. So what is the relationship of religion to citizenship rights for women in the Muslim majority?

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Ignore the passions of the masses at your own peril.

That the UK's EU Referendum is Happening at All is Significant

Date: 22 June 2016

It is not just that the polls indicate that the outcome of the UK referendum is too close to call, but the mere fact that the referendum is being held in the first place is significant.  It was not Labour, but the Conservative Party that brought the UK into the EU in the first place (and in the 1975 referendum Thatcher was campaigning for Bremain) and into the ERM.  Now the issue is tearing the party apart.

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Young voters are less likely to turnout, and that could be bad for the Brexit.

The Young Need to Turnout to Vote

Date: 22 June 2016

We showed that younger age cohorts in the UK are more inclined to vote to stay in the EU than their elders.  However, some suggested that this consideration is blunted by the fact that the younger people are less likely to vote.

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Many analysts believe drilling and service is in a catch 22 with oil prices.

An Oil Drilling and Service Catch 22

Date: 22 June 2016

The impact of rising oil prices on North American light tight oil (LTO) production is said to be a “Catch 22”, the title of Joseph Heller’s popular 1961 novel set in WWII. The premise was you could get out of the army if you were crazy but you weren’t crazy to try to get out of the army. Therefore, this avenue to escape the war didn’t work for the book’s main character John Yossarian.

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The UK's EU referendum is too close to call.

The Calm Before the Storm

Date: 22 June 2016

There is a nervous calm in the capital markets today. The focus is squarely on tomorrow's UK referendum.  According to a BBC focus group, the leave camp won the debate 39%-34%. The last polls show a contest that it too close to calls in that the results are within the margin of error.  The Financial Times poll of polls has it at 45%-44% in favor of Brexit. 

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Uganda's budget office debacle is an example for other developing countries.

Uganda's Budget Office Mess

Date: 21 June 2016

Parliamentary budget offices are meant to be watchmen that help parliamentarians by providing them with solid budget analysis. They are supposed to provide honest budget numbers based on nonpartisan evaluations. To do this they must maintain a pristine reputation free from corruption, political dealings or criminal activity.

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