Trade is measured by using the volume of total exports and total imports of a nation, involved in regional and international trade. Ups and downs in commodity prices, level of uncertainties, changes in exchange rates, and many other factors influence the trend of trade flows in the global market. The increasing trend of prices of commodities like gas and oil has proved to be beneficial for those countries, which export these commodities in the world market. However, increase in prices of commodities and energy products have adverse effect on those economies, which import these products.
The trend of trade flows during this decade has been characterized by significant ups and downs due to fluctuating demand in the world market. Export volume of merchandise has dropped from 8.5% in 2006 to 6% in 2007. This slow down in trade volume has been the result of falling demand of imports in a number of developing nations, mostly in the United States of America, Japan, and also to some extent in Europe. However, during the period from 2000 to 2007, volume of global merchandise exports has recorded an overall increase by 2.7%, which is faster than the corresponding growth rate of real GDP. During this period, exception occurred only once in the year 2001, when growth rate of GDP was higher than volume of merchandise exports.
Export volume of manufactured products recorded an increase by 7.5% in 2007. The substantial increase in agricultural export (19.5% in terms of dollar) was supported by 14% increase in prices of agricultural products.
Among the developing economies, which showed substantial improvement in trade volume, Brazil, India, and China are worth mentioning.In the year 2007, volume of merchandise trade of Brazil amounted to $161 billion; while imports accounted for $127 billion. India recorded $145 billion of merchandise export in the year 2007. However, import volume of India’s merchandise trade amounted to $217 billion in the same year and this shows that India has experienced $72 billion worth of negative trade balance in the 2007 financial year.
This decade has seen increasing participation of less developed economies in the global market. Higher volumes of trade have been recorded in travel, transportation, and all major areas of commercial services. In the year 2007, India, China, Japan, the United States, and the European Union together constituted 75% of world export of commercial services. In the last couple of years, rates of export of commercial services by India and China have been higher than the corresponding international average.