Inflation is a risky situation for any economy since it faces a crisis in terms of scanty supply of products whereas the demand for goods and services are on a rise. The supply of money increases and that is precisely the reason behind the devaluation of money which in turn negatively affects the demand of the masses. Inflation Analysis contains a vivid description of the factors that are responsible for inflation. The analysts assess the situations and the various factors regarding inflation.
The biggest problem is to maintain a stability in the price in general. To maintain stability the monetary policy must be flawless and the government must continue to formulate or if required may even renovate the monetary policies with a view to stabilize the prices. The effort is put mainly to maintain the stability in the areas where Euro is the medium of transaction. The analysis of inflation is based on certain structural models formulated by the Central Bank.
Models of Inflation Analysis
There are various models that are followed by the accountants to analyze inflation. The models are:
Inflation Indicators have some forecasting powers that are quite useful to the analysts. But they are slightly complex and due to their complicated nature it becomes difficult for the analysts to use them indiscriminately.
Time Series Models utilizes only the time series properties to predict economic situations unlike the structural models.
ARIMA Models are also used to predict inflation. ARIMA Models are used to trace short-term changes which in turn influence the long-term changes in the market.
BVAR Models were introduced by Doan, Simms and Litterman. It is a dynamic model which traces the changes individually.
The dollar is little changed on the day against the majors. The euro is trading at $1.2650 and the pound at $1.6050. The dollar is just above ¥108.0 against the yen.
There was also little notable price action in the EM space except the ruble, which continues to underperform and make new all-time lows. TRY and ZAR are weaker on the day. BRL closed at 2.50 yesterday, after making a cycle high of almost 2.52 ahead of Sunday’s election.
Professor at Columbia University. Recipient of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences in 2001 & the John Bates Clark Medal in 1979. Author of "Freefall: America, Free Markets", "The Sinking of the World Economy", "Globalisation and its Discontents" & "Making Globalisation Work".
Professor of Economics & Director of the Earth Institute at Columbia University. Special Adviser to the UN Secretary-General on the Millennium Development Goals. Founder & co-President of the Millennium Promise Alliance.
Chancellor of the Exchequer of the United Kingdom from 1992 to 2007. Prime Minister of the UK between 2007 and 2010. Inaugural 'Distinguished Leader in Residence' at New York University. Advisor at World Economic Forum
CEO and co-CIO of PIMCO. Served as President and CEO of the Harvard Management Company for 2 years, while also working at the IMF for 15 years. In 2008, his book "When Markets Collide", won the Financial Times award for Business Book of The Year in addition to being named as the one of the best business books of all time by The Independent.
Vice President and Director of the Global Economy and Development Program at the Brookings Institution. Former Turkish Minister of State for Economic Affairs. Head of the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) from 2005-2009.
James W. Harpel Professor of Capital Formation and Growth at the John F. Kennedy School of Government in Harvard University. Director of Program in International Finance and Macroeconomics at the National Bureau of Economic Research.