A substantial amount of Pakistan economic growth is largely expected in fiscal year 2008-2009. Pakistan economy, one of largest in South Asia has been forecast to grow 5.5 percent in 2009. However, it was previously estimated to be 5.8 percent, as was said by finance ministry in Islamabad. However shortage of power and flawed polices have made chances of economic growth in Pakistan a little slim, as pointed out by deputy chairman of Planning Commission, Salman Faruqui.
Economic growth of Pakistan is seen through gross domestic product purchasing power parity, which was estimated to be $454.2 billion in 2008. Official exchange rate was approximately $160.9 billion, while real growth rate in 2008 GDP of Pakistan, as per statistical data was found to be 4.7 percent. GDP per capita income was $2,600 in 2008.
For economic growth of Pakistan, each sector contributes individual amounts to economy and thereby adding to GDP. Agricultural sector contributes about 20.4 percent to Pakistan GDP. 26.6 percent is added by industrial sector as was estimated by 2008. 53 percent was received from service sectors during 2008.
Government is introducing new policies to encourage economic growth in Pakistan. Poverty reduction is among main issues that have been taken up by government for economic growth of Pakistan. In Pakistan, it was estimated that more than 160 million people of this nation survive on less than $2 a day. Government has plans to improve roads, dams and power generating plants to create more job opportunity and enhance possibilities of economic growth at Pakistan. For this, 541 billion rupees will be spent to accentuate Pakistan economic growth. Pakistani Prime Minister Gilani assured that gains of Pakistan economic growth will be invested on benefit of common people. Farm sector is also expected to grow, which at present accounts for one-fourth of GDP.
Central bank of Pakistan has increased discount rate at which it lends to commercial banks by 1.5 percentage points. This was done to bring down inflation rate in Pakistan. In 2008, total investment was estimated to rise to 22.4 percent of GDP. Economy of Pakistan showed 5.4 percent growth in manufacturing, 4.8 percent growth in large scale manufacturing and 1.5 percent growth in agriculture sector in 2008. It has been found that there has been a growth of 18.4 percent in per capita income and 17 percent growth in finance and insurance sector in 2008. Pakistan economic growth is also marked by increase in public debt burden, which rises from 55.2 percent of GDP to 56 percent.
EM currencies stabilized after the FOMC meeting last week. Yet the Fed clearly signaled that it remains on track to start hiking rates around mid-2015. While Yellen’s guidance was taken as dovish (tightening won’t be at a predictable, “measured” pace), we still feel the looming Fed tightening cycle remains negative for EM. Furthermore, commodity prices remain soft. This and the upcoming turn in the US interest rate cycle should maintain downward pressure on EM currencies through H1 2015.
Nouriel Roubini, a.k.a. “Doctor Doom”, is chairman of Roubini Global Economics and professor of economics at New York University’s Stern School of Business. Roubini has been consistently cited as one of the world’s top global thinkers. This year, he was voted as the most influential economist in the world by Forbes magazine.
Mario I. Blejer is a former governor of the Central Bank of Argentina and former Director of the Center for Central Banking Studies at the Bank of England. Eduardo Levy Yeyati is Professor of Economics at Universidad Torcuato Di Tella and Senior Fellow at The Brookings Institution.
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