China Economic Forecast

By: EconomyWatch   Date: 30 June 2010

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China has been making efforts for a more social and business-friendly environment in its economy.

President Hu Jintai has been guiding policies towards achieving this goal with initiatives to make the Chinese Communist Party more accountable; and reforms to strengthen democracy.

Protests against corruption are expected in the country to push for reform laws to be introduced.

China GDP Forecast

In China, ethnic problems plague Tibet and Xinjiang, however these issues don’t affect the Chinese economy and its advancement.

In 2010, China’s GDP growth was 10.456 percent, totaling US$ 5,745.13 billion, and is expected to increase 11.79 percent in 2011 to US$ 6,422.28 Billion. Forecasts for 2015 predict China’s GDP to reach US$ 9,982.08 billion, growing 10-12 percent per year between 2010 and 2015.

The growth rate of real gross domestic product is predicted to remain steady at 8 percent in financial year 2010. Much of this could be attributed to negative prospects in property investments and net exports. The rate is expected to decrease to 7.5 percent in the end of 2010 and may lead to negative external debt.

In 2010 China’s budget surplus decreased 0.4 from the previous year.

China Population & Unemployment

China’s population in 2010 was 1.341 billion, and is expected to grow to 1.375 billion in 2015. In 2010, China’s unemployment rate stood at only 4.1 percent, decreasing 4.65 percent from the previous year and expected to decrease further to 4 percent in 2011. Forecasts for 2015 predict China’s unemployment rate to remain at 4 percent between 2011 to 2015.

China Inflation Rate and Current Account Balance

China’s inflation rate in 2010 was 3.524 percent, increasing by 428.34 percent on the previous year and is predicted to decrease to 2.71 percent in 2011. Forecasts for 2015 predict China’s inflation rate to stabilize and remain at 2 percent from 2012 onwards.

Low rates of inflation on consumer goods and food items would prevent rises in costs of utility goods.

Current account surplus for China is expected to go down in 2010 from 7.5 percent to 5.8 percent of GDP.

The World Bank has predicted that compared to earlier figures, China may be facing its lowest economic growth soon. The organization points to lowered economic growth for China as a result of the adverse impact left by the global economic crisis on China's economy.


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